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Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry Technology Development Co., Ltd. invested 1.7 billion yuan to take the Italian CIFA of the “hundred-year-old store†in the industry, and the world’s competitive landscape of the industry was changed. Although the dust settled still had to take some time, This matter has stirred up waves in the industry and capital markets. There are both certainty and concern. There are also admiration and doubts. Is the price expensive? What is the meaning? How to control the risk of integration? With these doubts, the reporter recently analyzed the situation of the industry and the company. He also interviewed some people in the industry who were willing to disclose their names and were unwilling to disclose their names and tried to get a clear conclusion.
There is a price called "comfortable"
The price is the focus of the workshop.
The situation of the target company is the key to considering this expensive price. For the target company, the 80-year-old history is worth mentioning. Well-known European and American brands are worth mentioning. In the reporter's opinion, the real focus should be on the current operating conditions and future development trends. The difficulty in judging lies in the Italian accounting system and the international accounting system. Or the difference between China's accounting systems does not translate its financial data into the calibre of international or Chinese accounting systems. Our judgments may be thousands of miles.
According to public information, CIFA achieved sales revenue of 344 million euros in 2007. According to insiders of the construction machinery industry, sales revenues of Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry include chassis prices, while CIFA’s revenues are priced out. If you follow the caliber of two Chinese companies, CIFA’s sales revenue should be More than 500 million euros. In addition, in accordance with international or Chinese accounting standards, CIFA achieved a net profit of 17.15 million euros in 2007 under the premise of high tax burden in Italy.
In addition, although CIFA has a long history, the development status of the family-owned enterprise stage is actually not so exciting, and the company has really entered a healthy development track after the shareholder changes and the new professional manager team took over in 2006. This professional manager manages The team has brought more than 30% annual growth. According to news from Italy, CIFA pump sales increased by 49% year-on-year from January to May this year, and pumping sales increased by 32% year-on-year. This growth rate is probably only one percentage higher than that of Zoomlion's Chinese companies. The realization of the growth rate is under the background of the economic crisis in Europe and the United States under the influence of the US subprime mortgage crisis.
Domestic institutions have forecasted that CIFA will realize a net profit of 22 million euros in 2008. According to the situation of CIFA in the first four months of this year and the seasonal characteristics of the sales of concrete machinery industry, the reporter estimates that the net profit realized in the whole year may exceed 28 million euros if it is maintained in 2009. With 10% sales revenue and 15% net profit growth, CIFA's 2009 net profit could reach 32 million euros. Compared to the investment costs of 271 million euros of Zoomlion and co-investors, the 2007 static price-earnings ratio is about 15 times, while the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2008 is less than 10 times, and the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2009 is about 8 times. The U.S. research bank UBS’s research department recently provided Sany Heavy Industry’s dynamic P/E ratio of 15.5 times in 2009. The agency considers different growth capabilities of the company and gives Zoomlion’s 2009 dynamic P/E ratio of 18%. Times.
What is the level of 9.6 times EV/EBITDA given by Zoomlion and its co-investors in international transactions? According to Bloomberg's public information and related data collected previously, it is found that, regardless of the situation in China, the value of the EV/EBITDA multiple of the similar size of the global machinery industry in the past ten years is 10.2 times, but this value is obvious. It is increasing year by year. On July 29, 2007, Doosan Corporation of Korea acquired Ingersoll-Rand’s pocket-sized equipment business unit. The sales revenue of the business unit was US$2.6 billion in 2006, EBITDA was US$3.7 billion, and Doosan’s valuation was US$4.9 billion. The business unit retired, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of the deal was 13.2 times. On January 14, 2008, Terx Corporation announced the acquisition of Caterpillar's ASV Corporation with a transaction value of US$445 million. ASV’s 2007 EBITDA was US$111.8 million, and the transaction’s EV/EBITDA multiple was 23.67 times. .
There are two kinds of contradictory legends. One is that Zoomlion’s bid has been spurred by the vicious competition of Sany Heavy Industry, and the other is that Sany Heavy Industries has handed over the transaction at the last moment. However, the reporter's investigation and analysis do not support either of the two. It is obvious that Zoomlion and its co-investors’ bids are not competitive with respect to the 650 million euros bid offered by Sany. It seems that there are only two situations. First, Zoomlion and Sany have actually reached a certain tacit understanding. The Zhonglian knows that Sany will not participate in the competition in the end, and the second is that Zhonglian’s bid has not been pushed by the price of the Trinity. The impact of Trinity's attempted bidding has not been lifted. Why is China Unicom’s bid far below Trinity? One possible situation is the influence of co-investors. Investment institutions such as Goldman Sachs will never bid without counting their debts, and they will not participate in vicious cases. Rivalry competition. "We only have prices that we think are comfortable," they said.
Maybe, this price is very comfortable for everyone.
As for the so-called "Sany," in the last minute, the trade was handed over to one another, and the authorities that had tried to coordinate the two companies learned that Sany did not publicly give up within 5 minutes before the seller received the fax tender. Perhaps, the price of the Zhonglian Bidder Group has already been determined at this time. Otherwise, the time for signing and printing bids will be gone, let alone faxing to each other. “We really do not want to see the two companies lose and lose, but also made some efforts, but we respect the choices of companies.†The official said.
Zhonglian’s acquisition of CIFA has a price called “comfortableâ€
Most mergers and acquisitions are lackluster, but it is remarkable to change the world's competitive landscape in one stroke.