Industry enters cyclical adjustment Industry cautiously optimistic about next year's auto market

The rapid growth of the Chinese auto market that has continued for two years was suspended this year. The year-on-year increase of 32% last year fell to single digits this year, which is undoubtedly a blow to the manufacturers that still hope to continue to enjoy similar market feasts in the past two years. However, from the latest industry survey of Gasgoo.com (from November 29th to December 5th, the number of valid votes was 2,179), although the market as a whole contracted sharply this year, the industry did not respond to 2012. China’s auto market has pessimistic expectations and cautious optimism is the main tone.

The poll results of Survey 1 showed that those who accounted for 40% of the total number of people in the survey believe that the growth rate of China's auto sales in 2012 is expected to reach the range of 5% to 10%, which should be slightly higher than the overall performance of the market this year; it also accounts for a large proportion, Those who reach 39% will determine this increase in the 0 to 5% range, which is basically the same as this year. In addition, those who hold a pessimistic expectation of 12% believe that the Chinese market will likely have negative growth in 2012; but at the same time, there are still 3% and 6% of the people are optimistic that the growth rate of the Chinese market in 2012 is still expected to reach 10% to 15% This range has even increased by more than 15%.

Based on the views of the top executives and related institutions and experts who have publicly expressed views on the trend of the Chinese auto market next year, and combined with our offline investigation interview results, we have basically concluded that the industry’s general expectation for the Chinese auto market in 2012 is 10 About %, will be slightly higher than this year's growth rate, and basically the same increase in GDP growth next year.

The turning point in the hard landing of the Chinese auto market this year was mainly due to the fact that the market demand was seriously overdrawn in the previous two years, the macroeconomic recession and inflation caused the potential purchasing power to increase the wait-and-see mood this year, affecting the exit of stimulus policies and the threshold for energy-saving vehicle subsidies. The successive increase in the market has also caused a huge impact on the low-end market, coupled with the introduction of some local government restrictions on the purchase of policies and the actual increase in the cost of car use leads to more rational consumer demand for cars. However, with the gradual improvement of the macroeconomic situation and the expected fall in the CPI in 2012, the potential purchasing power of some of the currency purchasing services is expected to be released. The potential for secondary car purchase will also be further released in the overall warming of the national economy. The continued heavy volume to the market.

But it is worth our attention is that the local market pressure on auto brands next year will be further increased compared to this year.

From the results of Survey 2, the market performance of foreign brands and joint venture self-owned brands in 2012 was basically optimistic about the industry. The two brands of passenger cars received 38% and 29% of the votes. There is also an interest in imported cars, with 17% optimistic about their growth. In contrast, the self-owned brand cars and micro noodles only received 15% and 1% of the votes.

The concept of Chinese automobile consumption caused by many factors is difficult to be changed for foreign brands in a short period of time. In the case that the government has no obvious supportive policies, local independent brand cars are doubled by foreign brands and joint venture independent brands with obvious foreign capital background. Extrusion will be normalized over a longer period of time in the future. Of course, from an optimistic point of view, this multiple competitive pressure from the market can also contribute to a certain extent to the local independent brands will focus more on improving quality and marketing capabilities, and help accelerate the autonomy. The survival of the fittest from the brand camp itself ultimately fostered indigenous auto companies with real market competitiveness. In the short term, in the face of the severe situation in 2012 and the following years, independent brands should do a good job of defense, lower the pace of scale expansion, and concentrate resources on the development of more competitive models.

The market performance of each market segment in 2012 may be subtle changes.

Survey 3 poll results show that 29% of the people are most optimistic about the SUV market sales performance in 2012. According to statistics, the SUV market continued to grow 5.9% month-on-month in the overall sluggish market in October this year, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and this trend will continue in 2012. With the constant influx of new entrants, fierce competition in the domestic SUV market is inevitable. Identifying and developing new, more subdivided strategic models will make it possible for major brands, especially newcomers, to stand on this market. The key to steadying your foot.

Contrasting with the SUV market is the MPV market, which has shown an astonishing growth rate in the past two years. The sales performance of this emerging market segment in 2012 was only favored by 9% of the people, and its market heat has cooled. The speed is not alarming. Statistics show that except for a few popular models such as the GL8 and Touran (model cars), which continue to maintain a good increase, most of the other models have experienced different degrees of decline in the first ten months of this year. In 2012, the MPV market still remained. It will be a tough battle. From this we can also conclude that compared to the SUV market, it will take a while for the MPV market to make a big splash in China.

The compact car market, as the mainstream mainstream consumer market, and the huge first-time car group that China’s auto market still has before it is not saturated, the compact car market is undoubtedly a hotly contested place. Up to 20% of the people in the survey are optimistic about this. Market segment sales performance next year. In contrast, a small car as a market segment that also has a large customer base is only favored by 4% of people. It can be seen that the exit of the government's favorable stimulus policy has caused a considerable impact on this market, and the negative impact is undoubted. It also spread to the major competitors in this market segment - independent brands. According to data from the China Automobile Association, domestic passenger cars with 1.6 liters and below sold 812,800 vehicles in October, a month-on-month decrease of 9.05% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.76%. Passenger vehicles with 1.6 liters and below accounted for 67.01% of the total passenger vehicles. It fell by 1.15 percentage points last month, down 2.9 percentage points from the same period of last year.

Mid-size car market With the maturity of China's high-end car market, the industry's expectations for the market are still very optimistic, 19% of people believe that this segment of the market performance in 2012 worth the wait.

The cooling of the luxury car market is inevitable. Although there are still 18% of people are optimistic about the market performance of this market in 2012, this year's high-profile growth in this highly-reported market has obviously declined from the previous two years. As the giants of luxury cars step up their presence in the Chinese market, the cooling of consumer demand will further exacerbate competition in this market.

With the ever-changing market, in the face of the challenges China's auto market may face in 2012, the industry has not reached a consensus on whether the government will rescue the market when the market is depressed.

Combined with our previous market prediction survey, the industry’s opposition to the government’s rescue efforts is no longer strong. For example, in the prediction survey of the auto market in the second half of this year, there were as many as 78% of the people (the total number of votes of 3182) was very clear that they did not support the government to rescue the market. In the current survey, the proportion of voters who opposed the government’s rescue has fallen to 53%. At the same time, 27% of people believe that if the auto market continues to slump, the government has to issue stimulus policies to save the market.

As a typical cyclical industry, we may not be overly sensitive to the cooling after the market surge. We still insist that this fall in the Chinese auto market is a rational return of the market as a whole. From the perspective of sustainable development or using the overall concept of thinking to analyze the current weak performance of the Chinese auto market, we basically do not have to worry about the current market conditions. The negative impact. Under the pressure of transportation, energy and the environment, if the government reshapes the unprecedented prosperity of the Chinese auto market with administrative power, it is very likely that the future market will be truly overdrawn in advance.

In any case, in the face of the slow growth of the Chinese auto market in 2012, major manufacturers should make timely strategic adjustments and effectively avoid being dragged down by the aggressive expansion plan that was previously enacted.