Japan Earthquake Impact on Global Mold Industry

Japan's mold manufacturing technology is in a leading position in the world. According to Luo Baihui, Managing Director of the International Tool & Die & Plastic Industry Suppliers Association, there are about 10,000 mold manufacturing plants in Japan, of which more than 90% accounted for more than 91%, that is, the Japanese mold industry is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, mainly by specialized division of labor. , complete high quality mold design, processing. In terms of processing, a large number of unattended processing units are used, or on-line control through computers. Almost all of the design and manufacturing departments use CAD/CAE/CAM technology for motion simulation analysis and DNC (Direct Digital Control) processing. The technology development of molds is mainly focused on high precision, high speed, long life, complexity, large scale, integration, and high performance. As Japan's specialized division of labor is doing well, the overall manufacturing level of small and medium-sized mold enterprises is high, making the "Made in Japan" mold a symbol of brand and quality.

A magnitude 9 earthquake occurred off the coast of northeastern Japan on March 11, triggering multiple tsunamis, which caused a series of factories to stop production, and the Fukushima nuclear power plant stopped supplying power and leaked. The death toll reached tens of thousands of people. The northeastern region of the disaster-affected area is not the most important industrial zone in Japan. However, many important industrial factories such as automobiles, IT electronics, semiconductors, and petrochemical plastics are also concentrated in the area. The economic scale of the area accounts for Japan’s GDP. About 8% of GDP. According to Luo Baihui, executive director general of the International Die & Metals & Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, the automobile, IT and electronics industries suffer the most serious losses, and parts and components are hindered after the earthquake. Hino, Mitsubishi, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Daihatsu, etc. Eight Japanese automakers will temporarily shut down their factories in Japan from the 14th. Among them, a total of 22 factories of Toyota, Honda, and Nissan, the three largest automakers in Japan, have been closed down. Discontinued three Japanese car companies, including Lexus, Infiniti and Acura brand. Among them, Toyota's imports ranked third, second only to Mercedes-Benz and BMW. In the IT electronics industry, Sony shut down six factories; Panasonic chose to suspend production temporarily; Toshiba also closed its micro-controller plant in Iwate Prefecture. The earthquake did not cause too much damage to the factories or production equipment of these electronic chip factories. However, equipment maintenance, insufficient power supply and traffic damage will all affect chip supply.

According to incomplete statistics, the major conditions for Japan’s large export volume to China are: (1) machinery worth more than US$ 2-30 billion per month; (2) chemical industry of US$ 15-20 billion per month; (3) finished products 15 - More than US$2 billion/month (steel products 700 million, non-ferrous metals 300 million, metal molds and products 200 million, rubber molds and products 60 million, textile yarns and fabrics 200 million, non-metallic mineral appliances more than 100 million, paper and Paper products 40 million); (4) Electronics, motors more than 3 billion US dollars / month, of which semiconductor subprojects have more than 1 billion, integrated circuits 708 million; (5) transport equipment more than 600 million US dollars / month: motor vehicles and About half of the motor vehicle parts; (6) "Other" projects of 1.2 billion U.S. dollars/month: Among them, scientific optical instruments are 6,700 million U.S. dollars per month. Luo Baihui believes that the earthquake will lead to the supply chain crisis in the upstream and downstream industries such as automotive, IT electronics, machinery and mold. The molds in the traditional manufacturing industry include: automobile cover molds, automotive parts and electronic molds, home appliance molds, consumer electronics molds, mobile communication molds, OA molds, medical supplies molds, instrumentation molds, plastic daily necessities and toy molds, Aerospace components molds, rail transit related products molds, various types of machinery molding related product molds. On the basis of serving traditional manufacturing industries such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, and home appliances, many new products will also serve strategic emerging industries such as new energy, medical devices, aerospace, and energy conservation and emission reduction. The mold manufacturing industry will support the development of emerging strategic industries, and provide precision and ultra-precision molds for sensing and other functions for the new generation of IT information technology industries; precision and ultra-precision molds for medical devices for the biological industry; and services for energy-saving and environmental protection industries. High-light traceless and in-mold decorative molds, stacking molds and rotating molds, multi-color multi-material injection molds, multi-layer co-extrusion composite molds, multi-functional composite high-efficiency molds, LED new light source supporting molds, and energy-efficient motors for sheet metal stamping Moulds; new blade molds and spindle molds and motor molds for megawatt wind turbines that serve the new energy industry; plastic steel and light metal steel molds, energy-saving automotive hybrid power tool molds, and automobiles that serve the new energy automotive industry Smart molds such as cover thermoforming molds and multi-station automated stamping molds will be affected by the correlation. Although Japan's major manufacturers have not been catastrophically damaged, due to the disruption of traffic caused by the earthquake, the supply of raw materials was affected and the finished products could not be transported to airports or ports. As Japan's position in the global industrial chain is extremely important, the supply chain crisis will bring losses to Japanese manufacturers and even global manufacturers within a few months.

In recent decades, Japanese companies have been expanding outwards and overseas manufacturing bases. Some people think that this is "hollowing out." According to Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Mould, Hardware and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, Japan has always been an “industry-building country”, and there are the following characteristics in the outward shift of industries. First, core technologies and profits are in their hands. Japanese companies are characterized by commercial networks. For example, several large-scale automobile companies have established joint ventures with China. The profits left to Chinese companies are only in the assembly process. Other profitable components such as parts, engines and high-end internal Decorations, etc., are firmly in the hands of Japanese companies. Japan has always been an “industry-based country,” and many joint ventures appear to be manufacturing plants. In reality, they are selling networks under China and enter the Chinese market in this way. Moreover, China's brand has also been incorporated into the Japanese economy community. For example, Changhong, Haier, and so on, on the surface it is a Chinese brand, but the core components such as monitors are all Japanese, leaving only a brand for China. These can be seen from Mr. Bai Yimin's book "Mitsui Empire in Action" and "Aiming at the Japan Foundation".

How large is the damage to Japan's related industries in this earthquake? Mr. Bai Yimin, who has studied the Japanese industrial economy, believes that it must be analyzed from two aspects. On the one hand, in the past 30 years, Japan's industries have spread around the world, and GNP (Gross National Product) has increased by more than 10% each year. From an economic point of view, Japan has already built a new Japan overseas. Many of its GDP (gross domestic product) was counted in other countries including China. Although it seems that economic growth has stagnated, this is only an indication. From this point of view, the earthquake that occurred in the region will not have a particularly large impact on the Japanese economy and important industries. On the other hand, the Japanese consortium constructed the "Geese Form", which means that local companies are the first to acquire the most upstream products and technologies; followed by South Korea and Taiwan, mainly supporting Japanese technology; and finally the mainland is playing a role. The "geese tail" role is assembled for "Made in Japan" and is at the lowest point of the industrial chain. From this perspective, Japan's domestic industries damaged by the earthquake will inevitably spread to the downstream, especially some factories in mainland China. Therefore, in a comprehensive judgment, the earthquake will not have a fundamental impact on its domestic economy and it will recover quickly.

Bai Yimin stated that Japan is a major producer of electronic products and the earthquake will surely have a major impact on the global electronics industry. A Toshiba chip factory was suspended due to the earthquake. Unlike the CPU in the computer, Toshiba produced chips for higher-end products such as mobile phones, flash memory, and automotive auto-control systems. If an agency fails to obtain the goods, it will surely stock up on reluctance to sell. The impact on prices depends on the degree of damage to the factory and the progress of recovery. If the factory can quickly resume operation, the price will not rise sharply; if the factory is discontinued for a period of time, then the global chip The price will certainly rise. Other industries, such as steel, will not have much impact on the global iron ore market because Japan has already concentrated on producing high-grade steel (such as automotive sheet), and a large amount of crude steel is purchased from China. The earthquake may affect the export of Japanese high-end auto sheet to China. In the long-term, Japan's earthquake reconstruction will increase the import of China's crude steel.

In addition to controlling core technologies in many areas, Japan also controls the most lucrative links in the industry chain, and leaves most of the joint ventures in other markets around the world with only assembly-linked profits. This “industry-based” economic model is also A place worth learning by Chinese companies. The current need to be vigilant is that international hedge funds and capitalists are making public opinions, exaggerating losses, and taking the opportunity to withdraw funds. This will have a serious impact on the development of the global economy. If Japanese capital is pumped away, global industrial associations will be very large. The impact.

There are about 7,000 mold companies in the United States, and more than 90% are small companies with less than 50 people. Due to the high degree of industrialization, the US mold industry has long been a mature high-tech industry and is in the forefront of the world. The US mold steel has achieved standardized production and supply, mold design and manufacturing commonly used CAD/CAE/CAM technology, processing technology, inspection and testing supporting advanced equipment, large-scale, complex, sophisticated, long-life, high-performance mold development reached the leading level. However, since the 1990s, the U.S. economy has faced major adjustments and major changes in the post-industrial era. It has also faced strong international competition—from cost pressures, time pressures, and competitive pressures.

Germany has always been known for its superb processing skills and production of precision machinery and tools. The mold industry also fully embodies this feature. After many years of practical exploration in the industrial field where the mold has a complex connotation, the German mold manufacturers have formed a consensus that the entire industry must coordinate, work together, tap the potential of development, and jointly promote the spirit of innovation, common technological progress, complement each other and play a good role. The overall advantage to achieve the industry's success. In addition, in order to meet the needs of the rapid development of today's new products, not only large companies have established new development centers in Germany, but many small and medium-sized enterprises have also done so, taking the initiative to do research and development work for customers. In terms of research, Germany has always been very active and has become an important basis for its unbeaten position in the international market. In the fierce competition, the German mold industry has maintained its strong position in the international market for many years, and its export rate has been stable at around 33%. According to the statistics of German tooling industry association, the German Association of Machinery Manufacturers (VDMA), there are about 5,000 die companies in Germany. In 2003, the German die value reached 4.8 billion euros. Among them, there are 90 (VDMA) member mold companies, and the output value of these 90 backbone mold companies accounts for 90% of the German mold output value.

Singapore is a small country with a population of only 3 million. In the 1980s and 1990s, the government attached importance to and supported the development of precision molds, and introduced many policies that have enabled the rapid growth of the mold industry and promoted the rapid development of Singapore’s economy. Singapore has more than 1,000 types of molds and related companies for precision machining. The annual production value of molds exceeds RMB 4.5 billion, which has a very important influence and role in the Asian mold industry. There are more than 10 listed companies in the mold industry. The molds produced by more than 65% of Singapore's enterprises are all supported by the electronics industry. The molds produced are not large, but they are all high-precision, high-level molds. Singapore mold companies are mainly concentrated in semiconductor frames / packaging molds, metal stamping molds, plastic molds, silicone rubber molds and other fields.

According to analysis by Luo Baihui, executive director general of the International Die & Metals and Plastics Industry Suppliers Association, Japan's molds will face five major issues - shorten delivery time, reduce manufacturing costs, increase mold quality and precision, labor shortages and meet the challenges of the above-mentioned mold powers. The earthquake has added to this situation. Many mold manufacturers in Japan have transferred their foreign investment in equipment reduction to post-disaster reconstruction. In the future, the growth of Japanese plastic molds, powder metallurgy molds, and die-casting molds will have uncertainties, while stamping molds and forging molds will tend to decrease.