Foton Motor: Industrial chain gradually improves profitability


Foton Motor Co., Ltd. is one of the most important commercial vehicle manufacturers in China. Its products cover a full range of trucks, buses and some MPV and SUV passenger vehicles. Today's investment "online analyst" shows: the company's comprehensive earnings per share forecast for 2009-2011 were 1.04 yuan, 1.22 yuan and 1.38 yuan, corresponding to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 18,15 and 13 times; currently a total of 18 analysts tracking, Five were given the "Strong Buy" rating, 13 were given the "Buy" rating, and the overall rating factor was 1.72.

The company announced on January 13 that it plans to acquire the assets related to the special vehicle business of Futian Heavy Machinery Co., Ltd. at a price of RMB 480 million, and at the same time undertake the liabilities corresponding to the purchase and purchase of assets. Fukuda Heavy Machinery is engaged in the development, production and sales of special vehicles, auto parts and construction machinery. It has an annual production capacity of 23,000 types of construction machinery ranging from 22 to 48 meters concrete pump trucks and 8 to 12 square concrete mixers. The current major products include Concrete machinery (occupying 6.3% of the market) and dump trucks (1.39% of market share) accounted for approximately 94% of sales of Foton Heavy Machinery. According to industry experience, such products have the characteristics of high added value and high profits, and profitability will be stronger than the company's automotive business. After the acquisition of the assets, it is expected to enhance the company's profitability. The company did not disclose the operating data of the special vehicle business. According to Xiangcai Securities’ estimation, the current annual turnover of the business is around 16-20 billion yuan, which is estimated based on the industry average profit level, and will bring about 40-60 million profit to the company after consolidation. The company regards heavy construction machinery as an important extension of the existing automotive field, and will actively cultivate the development of related businesses in the future. The company expects to accumulatively sell 93,408 construction machinery products from 2010 to 2015, achieving a net sales revenue of 42.7 billion yuan, and a total profit of 5.6 billion yuan for the company.

"Small companies" will gradually grow into "big companies." With the establishment of the Foton Cummins Engine and Foton Daimler joint venture, the future light truck and heavy truck industry chain will gradually improve, and the company's light trucks and heavy trucks will already be at the forefront of the industry. The company will undergo a strategic transformation, that is, simply pursue market share. Turn to market share and benefit. The company's strategic objectives in the 12th Five-Year Period achieved sales revenue of 100 billion yuan (09 billion yuan in 2009). Its sales revenue mainly comes from the growth of entire vehicles and construction machinery (acquisition of Foton Heavy Machinery), and the company has developed historical experience in light trucks and heavy trucks from the company. Look (all from the lower market share to reach higher market share in the industry), the company has the potential to transform from a small company to a large company; if the company achieves its strategic goals, the company will have a higher growth potential in the future. In 10 years, the company's demand for light trucks may exceed expectations, and rising steel prices will have limited impact on the profitability of light trucks. It is expected that 10 young card direct subsidy policies will play a role. The sales growth of the company's light trucks will be around 15%. The economies of scale and low costs will lead to a rise in gross profit margin in 2009. Shenyinuoguo has been sensitive to the impact of rising steel prices on the gross profit margin of light trucks. According to the analysis, the steel price rose by 15% in 10 years, and the gross profit rate of light trucks dropped by 1.3 percentage points, rose by 20%, and the gross profit rate decreased by 1.74 percentage points (without considering the cost pass-through). It is expected that the profitability of the 10 young card will be affected by the increase in steel prices, but with the increase in scale and the company's own ability to transfer, the decrease in the gross profit margin of light trucks is limited.

The demand for heavy trucks exceeded expectations in the first quarter, and the industrial chain improved its profitability. It is expected that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry will increase by about 15% in 10 years, and will maintain a relatively high growth rate in the first half of the year; the company’s heavy truck market share will increase year by year (up by 2 percentage points in 2009). It is expected that the sales growth of heavy trucks in the first quarter will be 170%. Left and right; strong demand for heavy trucks will cause the company's 1Q earnings to exceed expectations. It is expected to increase by about 15% year-on-year throughout the year. With the start-up of the joint venture company, Foton Daimler, the company's mid- to high-end heavy truck engines will be mainly provided internally, the heavy truck industry chain will gradually improve, and the heavy truck profitability will increase year by year.


View related topics: Beiqi Futian, Futian Automobile brand value of 22.157 billion yuan


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