Manufacturing PMI hits new low in three months

The leading index of the macro economy continued to fall, PMI fell to 50.6% in April, hit a new low in three months, and the new orders sub-index and production sub-index both fell back, indicating that the Chinese economy is facing downside risks, and growth momentum is still needed. Enhanced.

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics released data yesterday. In April, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 50.6%, which was higher than 50% for seven consecutive months and is still in a stable range. However, the index fell by 0.3% from March, and the growth trend weakened.

In the sub-index, the new orders index in April fell to 51.7% from 52.3% in March; new export orders fell to 48.6% below the watershed; the production index was 52.6%, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than March. . The purchase price index fell sharply from 50.6% in March to 40.1%.

“The PMI fell slightly in April, indicating that the foundation for economic stabilization has not been consolidated.” Zhang Liqun, macroeconomic analyst at the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that from the perspective of demand, the new orders index, export order index, and backlog order index are falling. From the perspective of inventory, the index of finished goods inventory and purchase volume is also falling. These conditions indicate that the decline in order levels began to shift supplementary stocks to destocking. The sharp drop in the purchase price index in April also reflected the negative expectations of the company.

Consistent with the fall in the official PMI, the preliminary HSBC PMI for manufacturing announced in April fell to 50.5 from the final value of 51.6 in March, and new export orders fell to a six-month low of 48.6, which also indicates that the economic recovery is weak. It is reported that the HSBC PMI final value will be announced on May 2 in April.

"In the light of these circumstances, it is expected that there will be a slight downward trend in economic growth in the future. Efforts should be made to stabilize domestic demand and improve the sustainability of economic stability," said Zhang Liqun.

The National Bureau of Statistics previously announced that the economic growth rate in the first quarter was 7.7%. This growth rate was obviously lower than the market consensus, and it reflected the hard indicator of economic growth—the growth rate of industrial production and electricity consumption were all weak in the first quarter, and the PPI It has been negative for a year, and the recent recovery is still weak. It also shows the lack of industrial demand. These signs indicate that the economic growth in the second quarter is facing challenges.

When the Politburo held a meeting to study the current economic situation and economic work earlier, it emphasized that in the first quarter, China’s economic and social development has started steadily and the economy has maintained steady growth. However, China’s economic operation still faces some difficulties and challenges. The world’s economic growth is insufficient, and the domestic economic growth momentum still needs to be strengthened. Therefore, macroeconomic policies must be stabilized, micro-policies must be liberalized, and social policies must be supported.

In addition, it is worth noting that in the April PMI sub-index, the purchase price index fell sharply from 50.6% in March to 40.1%, indicating that inflation in the short-term is no worries. Affected by seasonal factors, the CPI fluctuated up and down in the first quarter and it was 3.2% in February, but it was still lower than the target of 3.5% for the full year. In March, it fell sharply to 2.1%.

However, Lian Ping, the chief economist of the Bank of Communications, pointed out that despite the current economic growth has declined, which is conducive to price stability, but the price situation in the second half is not optimistic. The possibility of fine-tuning monetary policy may not be ruled out by then.