In 2009, the first case of Chinese-American tires affecting the Chinese people continued. Since the Obama administration announced the establishment of the China-US Tire Special Protection Act in September 2009, the Chinese government, the China Rubber Industry Association, and the domestic tire manufacturing enterprises have never stopped their efforts to fight through the defense or even resort to the WTO for a fair solution. Now, the investigation of the WTO expert group will lead the Sino-U.S. trade dispute to where? The "China-US Tire First Case" once again attracted widespread attention. Domestically awaits the investigation result with different moods It is understood that the WTO expert group has completed the trial of the case and announced the result of the verdict, which will take at least half a year. After six months, what will be the result of the survey? Domestic experts and companies have different views on this issue. Fan Rende, president of the China Rubber Industry Association, was optimistic about the results of the survey. He said: "In this special safeguard case, we proposed very early to resort to the WTO to resolve this dispute, and the US has been stubbornly relying on some untenable reasons. According to the rules of the WTO, we v. If the WTO can solve this dispute, it will win the dispute. The key to the success of this expert group's investigation is whether the US can respect some of the facts in the Sino-American tire trade.†Fan Rende believes that although the US will put forward a strong force for the WTO expert group. The evidence showed opposition, but in the end, the chances of winning the Chinese side are very high, because in the dispute of this special security case, all the evidence tends to China. "The establishment of an expert group of the WTO to investigate this case is definitely good news for tire export enterprises. I hope the time will not be dragged on too long." After learning about the establishment of the expert group, the legal affairs department manager of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd. Xu Youming’s response is the same as that of most domestic tire companies. "Say it was six months, but from the start of the investigation to the outcome of the verdict, and to the parties to implement various countermeasures based on the results of the verdict, I think it will take more than two years before the dust settles." “China’s appeal is mainly directed against the procedural issues of the United States when it initiated the special security case. If the WTO investigation results consider that the United States has deficiencies in procedures, it will withdraw the US’s special safeguard measures. But my personal expectations of the results are more pessimistic. I think it is very unlikely that the WTO will revoke the US special insurance ruling,†said Tu Xinquan, associate professor of the China Academy of Foreign Trade and Economics at the University of International Business and Economics. “The United States wants to implement special safeguard measures on Chinese products must meet certain conditions. But this condition is relatively low, it is easy for the United States to achieve. And for China, to prove that the United States does not meet the conditions or violation of WTO rules It's more difficult," Tu Xinquan said. “It can be said that the damage caused by the tire special security case has been irreparable.†Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, also believes that the investigation process of the WTO expert group will take a long time, and there is no need to expect much from the survey results. According to the three-year period of tires' special guarantees, even if the survey results are beneficial to China, the results may be released sooner than three years. Another personage inside the industry analyzes that since the WTO had no case to refer to in order to resolve the special safeguard dispute, it is difficult to predict how the panel will decide. The Chinese government and enterprises can familiarize themselves with the WTO dispute settlement rules, accumulate experience, and respond to similar cases in the future. Therefore, the prevention significance and demonstration significance of the WTO expert group's investigation of the Sino-American tire special security case is greater than the results of the special security case itself. The special safeguard case affects the continued spread in China and the United States In any case, since September 2009, the negative impact of the Sino-U.S. tire protection case on the tire industry in China and the United States has been spreading. For China, the special security case has made the price advantage of China-related tires significantly weakened in the US market. "China produces 40% of the tires exported, and one-third of them are exported to the United States. The first year levies tariffs up to 35%. This means that China's tire products will not be exported to the United States in the first year. According to preliminary estimates This will lose about $1 billion in exports," Fan Rende said. The relevant person of the China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch explained that with a Chinese-made tire at a US$30 FOB price, after entering the U.S. market with a 35% tariff increase, U.S. dealers received a purchase price of about US$40, and the distribution The final retail price that the business puts on the market will reach 50~60 US dollars, which is higher than the price of the same type of tire produced in the United States. Deng Yaxuan, secretary-general of the China Rubber Industry Association, also stated that the Sino-U.S. tire special protection case has directly reduced or stopped production of dozens of tire factories in China. And after the United States is blocked from exporting, it will also transfer surplus production capacity to the domestic market. Even if the auto market is hot and the tire industry is bringing strong domestic demand, it will be difficult to absorb excess export capacity and the domestic tire industry will be under pressure as a whole. In October and November of last year, China’s tire exports to the United States significantly decreased, with year-on-year decreases of 37.5% and 35.5%, respectively. According to statistics, from January to November last year, China exported 16.63 million tires to the United States, a decrease of 15.7%. “Some domestic large-scale tire companies’ exports in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 75% year-on-year, and some tire companies involved involved in foreign exchange earnings exceeded US$15 million,†said a person in charge of the Public Relations Department of the China Rubber Industry Association. Not only that. The special security case also affects 12% of the production capacity of China's tire industry. It also involves upstream raw materials such as synthetic rubber, carbon black, etc., which may cause problems in the start-up rate of related enterprises and unemployment of workers. The worst result is that trade wars in other countries against China have begun to spread. Following the United States, India, Brazil and Argentina have all initiated trade remedy measures against the Chinese tire industry. It is understood that as of now, China’s tyres have been successively investigated by countries from Venezuela, Australia, Brazil, Peru, Egypt, Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, the United States, Argentina, and India. The products involved are biased from cars and motorcycles. Low value-added products such as tires have spread to high value-added products such as heavy-duty radial tires and engineering tires. It is worth noting that the special security case has not only caused Chinese tire companies to suffer, but also the negative impact of the US market. “The US tire market has recently begun to show price increases, and major tire dealers have raised prices.†said the insider of the China Rubber Industry Association. For example, from February 1 this year, Continental tires will increase the price of truck tires in the United States by 8%. From February 1 this year onwards, Michelin will increase tire prices for light and medium-sized truck tires and bulldozers. Finland’s Nokia tires From January 11 this year, the company raised the price of passenger tires in North America, an increase of 3% to 6%. In addition, some tire companies have closed some of their North American factories. “These all show that the tire protection case has also had a negative impact on the U.S. corporate factories, affecting the direct consumer and related employment in the U.S. tire industry.†The above sources said. Domestic tire industry will go all out Regardless of the outcome, in the face of the upcoming investigation by the expert group, domestic tire companies have expressed their willingness to actively cooperate and go all out to resolutely resist trade protectionism. CITIC DeKalb Wheel Hub Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is currently the only domestic supplier of wheel hubs that can be synchronized to high-end car brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi. The relevant staff of the company stated that it is an act of misusing the WTO rules that American companies pass on their own mismanagement to Chinese companies. CITIC DiCai is cooperating with government departments and industry associations to make a multi-pronged appeal to clarify the truth of the matter and hire a lawyer to respond. "We must tell it to the end!" Another person in charge of the wheel exporter Zhejiang Wanfeng Aowei Steam Turbine Co., Ltd. also stated that the sales price of Wanfeng in the United States is reasonable, and that the price in foreign countries is still higher than the domestic price, so Not dumping. "Since Obama signed the special insurance order, it now needs WTO intervention." Van Rende told reporters: “The domestic rubber tire companies have agreed on their opinions. They all resolutely and actively respond to this issue. They are full of confidence in this investigation. I estimate that this investigation process will take a long time. If it is too long, it will be against our tires. Enterprises will not play a practical role in solving the barriers to exporting to the United States. However, from the point of view of maintaining world trade fairness, we will persist in the end regardless of the outcome." According to the insider of the China Rubber Industry Association, the Ministry of Commerce will issue an assessment analysis of the industry after the occurrence of the special security case, including changes in the amount of each company’s exports to the United States, changes in employment, and the impact on domestic companies. The China Rubber Industry Association is currently actively cooperating with this assessment work and contacts with companies to obtain the latest information. “In response to the special case of tire protection last year, the companies involved were all responded to by the China Rubber Industry Association. We will also actively organize companies to participate in this survey. This is our unshirkable responsibility.†Fan Rende said that the China Rubber Industry Association has made some preparatory work in advance, such as analyzing the impact of the special security case on tire companies in China and the United States. “At the same time, we also conducted detailed investigations on the situation in the US tire market through different channels and found some arguments. One of the important reasons why the United States initiated the tire special protection case is that the import of Chinese tires affects the development of the tire industry in the country, and thus affects We have been paying attention to the situation of the US tire industry after the occurrence of the tire special security case. We will continue to pay attention to how the facts are. We will provide further information. We will then provide sufficient arguments." According to foreign media reports, James Barks, who was the chairman of the WTO Appellate Body for 8 years and is currently the chairman of the global affairs department of GT International Law Offices in the United States, recently stated publicly that all WTO members have their rights under the framework and the WTO dispute resolution The purpose of the operation of the mechanism is to safeguard this right. 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