Heavy truck industry faces reshuffle


â– Wang Weidong

From the second half of 2005, major heavy truck companies have successively launched their own high-end large-tonnage products, among which Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile has launched “Ba Long”, FAW has released “Aowei”, and Jinan China National Heavy Duty Truck has launched “Ao Hao”, which is heavy in Shaanxi. Steam launched the "Dragon", Auman launched the "Intercontinental Edition" series, Chongqing Hongyan launched "big Kang", Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle Company launched the "Dragon" series. These products have been significantly improved in quality, configuration, and grade compared to previous products.

Obviously, the heavy truck market in China has entered a period of fierce competition with frequent new products and structural adjustments. The author predicts that the pattern of China's heavy truck market will undergo a fundamental change in the next two years, and heavy truck heroes (companies) will relocate.

The status quo and development forecast of heavy truck enterprises' competition

For many years, the first forces in the heavy truck market in China have been FAW and Dongfeng. Before 2004, they occupied more than 60% of the heavy truck market share. Since 2005, due to structural adjustments in the heavy truck market, large tonnage products have been sought after by the market, and the products of these two major companies are mainly below 15 tons, which are concentrated at around 8 to 10 tons, so their market share has dropped sharply this year. Between January and May, the sum of the two families was less than 45% (Table 1, Figure 1).

The second forces are China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Chongqing Hongyan and Beiqi Foton. They mainly produce more than 15 tons of products and occupy the majority of the market share. Also due to the adjustment of the market structure, 2005 In the future, their market position and share have risen sharply.

The third force is multinational corporations. They mainly attack high-end products and large-tonnage products in China. This kind of high-tonnage, high-horsepower, and high-tech heavy-duty truck products with increasing demand on the market is currently the hot spot for domestic heavy truck companies. It is also the weak link of domestic heavy truck companies and the future direction of development.

In recent years, especially after entering the year of 2005, due to the dramatic increase in the efficiency of domestic companies, the product lines have been expanding upwards and downwards, and the level of products has further increased. At the moment of heavy truck disputes, the weak foundation also reflected Instigated, so the means of competition can only be a big price war. The price war makes weak enterprises unsustainable, but can only lower and then lower costs, while the channel costs are skyrocketing. The consequence is that China's heavy-duty truck products are paralyzed in the vicious circle of low-level configuration and low prices. Technology and quality are originally A less than ideal state is prominent. What is more, some large-scale enterprises have suffered from the disadvantages of the systems and mechanisms left behind by state-owned enterprises in the past, serious brain drain, slow market response, and poor product structure adjustment, which has caused a sharp decline in market share and will eventually lead to heavy truck companies. Reshuffle.

FAW Group: Why it fell

The heavy truck market share of FAW Group was 34.48% in 2004, 26.30% in 2005, and 22.30% in January-May 2006, and it can be said that it is going downhill. The drastic decline in the market share of FAW and Dongfeng heavy trucks is in fact consistent: the incentive mechanism of talents, the unreasonable system, the serious brain drain, the slow market response, the large tonnage of over 15 tons of products cannot keep pace with market demand, etc. .

In January 2004, FAW Jiefang introduced Aowei Heavy Duty Tractors equipped with Xichai Engine. Subsequently, Liberation Veil equipped with Xicai Engine and Jiefang Dawei equipped with Dachai Engine were successively launched. FAW liberation said that these three products are J5 series, that is, the liberation of the fifth generation of products.

In the heavy-duty truck market of 15 tons and above, FAW liberation can be said to be late, and at the beginning of the listing of Aowei, its reliability was once questioned by users, which affected sales, which is the main reason for the sharp drop in the market share of FAW heavy trucks. .

However, in the past two years, FAW has spent a lot on R&D investment in heavy trucks. It can be described as “a decade of grinding and a sword” and it is a must. Judging from the current product strategy of FAW Jiefang, Dawei and his sister Aowei jointly shoulder the heavy responsibility of FAW liberation impact heavy-duty card market of 15 tons and above, and played a very good market for the introduction of J6 concept heavy truck and throwing stone to ask the way.

Judging from the current competitive situation of the top four heavy truck companies, FAW's biggest competitors are Sinotruk and Dongfeng. It is expected that the current ranking of the top spot may be challenged by Sinotruk by the end of the year, but it should not be. Out of the first two.

Dongfeng Company: Chong Gao Retreat

Dongfeng’s heavy-duty truck market share was 30.05% in 2004 and rose to 33.57% in 2005, ranking first in the industry. It dropped drastically to 21.98% in January-May 2006, a decrease of 11.59%. , quite unexpected. This year's sharp decline in the market share of Dongfeng heavy truck, in addition to FAW-like reasons, there is a more important factor is the introduction of Tianlong large tonnage of new products is too slow.

Judging from the current competitive situation of the top four heavy truck companies, Dongfeng’s biggest competitors are Sinotruk and FAW. Since Tianlong’s IPO is still a process of user recognition and recognition, it is expected that the current rankings of the two companies will be It may decline at the end of the year.

However, from the current situation of product competition in the heavy truck market, Tianlong has greater advantages and market potential. It is reported that in order to ensure the high quality of Dongfeng Tianlong, the Dongfeng Heavy Truck series integrates a large number of international advanced development experience, so that the performance of the entire vehicle system is fully enhanced, especially in terms of technology, safety, economy, reliability, comfort, etc. The performance is outstanding. It is foreseeable that with the Dongfeng Tianlong series gradually recognized and recognized by users, Dongfeng’s position in the heavy truck industry is expected to return to the top two in 2007.

China National Heavy Duty Truck Group: rapidly rising

This enterprise is the biggest bright spot in China's heavy truck industry in recent years. Following a year-on-year increase of 114.89% in 2004, the market share has soared in the past three years. It was 12.18% in 2004 and 16.43 in 2005. %, from January to May in 2006 was 20.83%.

Among the domestic heavy truck companies, Sinotruk and the Steyr platform have the deepest roots, but they are also taking the quickest steps to break away from the Steyr platform. The powertrain that was originally standard on the Haoyi 7 is still a Steyr platform product, but on the Haohe 8 heavy truck, the Shanghai Hino engine has been replaced. In addition, China National Heavy Duty Truck has been suspicious for the past two years, first with the Volvo and FAW joint venture to develop high-power engines, followed by the launch of Hao Hao series heavy truck, and recently it was confirmed that the negotiations with Volvo was blocked.

Judging from the current market trend of China National Heavy Duty Truck, the first two companies entering the industry at the end of this year should be expected, and the possibility of grabbing the top spot is also great. However, with FAW Dawei and Dongfeng Tianlong gradually being recognized and recognized by users, the growth of CNHTC should gradually slow down. Therefore, in 2007, the top two positions of the company may face many challenges.

Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck: Ji Junjun

In the heavy-duty industry restructuring and overall sluggishness, sales of Shaanxi Auto increased by 73.51% year-on-year in the January-May period, and its market share increased from 5.47% in 2004 to 5.85% in 2005. This year's 10.42%. As early as the beginning of the year, Shaanxi Automobile, which relied on the leadership of the heavy truck industry, was remarked.

In addition to its close strategic cooperation with major manufacturers such as Cummins, Weichai Power, French Gear, and Hande Axle, Shaanxi Automobile's success has greatly improved the core competitiveness of its Sunco, Cavalier and DeLong products. It is also related to the following two strategic decisions in marketing services: First, the transformation of marketing strategy and timely promotion of cooperation; Second, the vertical and horizontal network and network expansion. At the same time, Shaanxi Auto also timely and effectively adjusted and promoted various policies and programs with its regional offices and timely visited large group users, modified manufacturers, distributors, and service stations. With this move, competitive channel resources such as competitors' dealers, retrofit plants, service providers, etc. are constantly being attracted, and they have actively requested to join Shaanxi Sinotruk.

Due to the above competitive advantages, Shaanxi Automobile's market share in the next two years should also be greatly improved. However, since the sales base of the company is obviously less than the top 3 companies after all, it is unlikely that Shaanxi Automobile will enter the top three in the industry in the past two years.

Beiqi Foton: Stop Falling

Beiqi Foton had achieved an industry share of 8.75% in 2004, a year-on-year increase of 119.13%, and the industry ranked fourth. However, due to the instability of product quality control in the process of ultra-high speed development, the sales of Foton products plummeted by 53.15% year-on-year in the context of a significant contraction in demand for heavy-duty trucks in 2005. After a full year of painful “cultivation”, sales of Foton heavy trucks finally rebounded from February 2006. By May, the cumulative sales volume of Foton increased by 28.37% year-on-year, with a market share of 8.82%. 5.

Futian Heavy Trucks represented the Auman Shenzhou semi-trailer tractor. The cab was first purchased from the North Mercedes-Benz. After years of technology digestion and absorption, the Auman Shenzhou cab design process has become more mature. It is expected that the market share of Futian will increase slightly within the next two years, but it is unlikely that the industry will enter the top four.

Hongyan, Chongqing: Adjustment and Improvement

Since 2000, when China National Heavy Duty Truck Group was divided into three, Chongqing Hongyan began to embark on a period of stable growth, and its product development strategy has also adopted a steadfast strategy. From the viewpoint of Hongyan’s heavy truck representative product “Steyr Overlord”, the Weichai WD615 and 618 series engines, Shaanxi Hande Axle, and Fast Transmission are still their basic assembly configurations. The improvement lies mainly in the improvement of vehicle matching and safety and comfort, more streamlined cab appearance, and more luxurious interior design.

In recent years, under the siege of China's heavy-duty trucks, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck and other strong enemies, it is not easy for Hongyan to hold onto its existing market share. Because its heavy trucks are specially adapted to the terrain of the southwest region, the climbing performance is very good and it is very suitable for mountain road transport. This is one of the important reasons for the large sales and retention of Hongyan products in Southwest China.

After the joint venture with SAIC and Iveco, Hongyan’s own branded products will remain on the Steyr platform within a few years. This is no longer a suspense. The only thing that is striking is that Hongyan may use Iveco’s cab. The assembly upgrades its Steyr products. The stable and mature technology platform, good after-sales service and low price of accessories will be the main magic weapon for Hongyan to maintain its current market share and maintain its position.

North Mercedes-Benz: Low base point, rapid growth

This company is the only manufacturer among the top 7 companies in the heavy truck industry in the past three years to maintain sales growth year after year. The sales growth for 2004, 2005, and 1-5 months in 2006 was 149.13% and 13.65% respectively. 40.41%, the share was 1.48%, 2.04% and 2.73% respectively. In particular, the overall demand for the heavy-duty truck industry shrank sharply in 2005, and the North Mercedes-Benz still achieved a sales growth of 13.65%. The success of the North Mercedes-Benz is mainly due to the brand reputation of the German Mercedes-Benz.

In fact, the North Mercedes-Benz didn’t start to elevate its head until 2002, and its products did not start to strike after 2002 and squeezed into mainstream products. Thanks to the Mercedes-Benz technology platform, it can be completely separated from the Steyr platform. This is arguably the unique competitive advantage of the North Mercedes-Benz products.

Therefore, the market share of the North Mercedes-Benz in 2006 and 2007 should also increase by a certain margin. However, the company’s sales base is, after all, much smaller than the top six companies, so it is unlikely that the company will enter the top six in the industry in the last two years.

For the “new army” of individual industries in heavy truck industry, such as Hubei Sanhuan, Jianghuai Gefa, Anhui Hualing, and Nanchang Lingye, there have been different degrees of growth momentum in the past two years, especially Jianghuai and Anhui Hualing. The growth momentum of heavy trucks is very rapid. However, since the sales base of these “industry new army” products is not large, the market structure of the entire heavy truck industry will not have much impact in recent years.


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