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Interpretation of the top ten development trends of LED industry in 2015
In 2014, it was a bumper year for many LED manufacturers, but it was also a challenging year. Although the demand from the lighting market in the first half of 2014 exceeded the expected strong, even the LED supply was in short supply. However, due to the repeated orders from the client and the excessive inventory of the lighting channel, the influence of the over-stocking of the lighting channel gradually emerged in the second half of the year. Many manufacturers clearly felt the pressure of market demand and price competition. Therefore, for many LED manufacturers, the performance of the first half of the year, such as washing the sauna. In the face of the upcoming 2015, LEDinside also put forward some opinions and prospects for the LED industry, and sorted out the top ten market trends for the main highlights next year. 1. LED manufacturers' expansion plans still depend on government subsidies. China is still the largest LEDinside estimate for MOCVD installations. In 2014, the number of new MOCVD installations will reach 239. From the number of installations in the area, China is still the largest MOCVD installation area. Looking forward to 2015, China's regional governments still have measures to continue subsidies, so there are still more than 170 installed capacity in China in 2015. At present, the subsidies of local governments in China have also adjusted the subsidies in accordance with the price reduction of MOCVD equipment. At present, the amount of MOCVD subsidies has dropped from RMB 10 million to RMB 5 million in the past, but it is still profitable for many manufacturers. Overall, as LED manufacturers' expansion plans depend on local government subsidies, LED chip makers will show the phenomenon of large Evergrande in the future. 2. The big ones are Evergrande, and the market share of Chinese LED manufacturers continues to increase. With the technological upgrading and capacity release of China's LED chip factories, the proportion of China's chip production value to the global LED chip production value is expected from 27 in 2013 to 2014. It is expected to increase to 36. In the past, China's LED backlighting or lighting applications rely on Taiwanese capital or foreign companies are no longer seen. As Chinese packaging manufacturers continue to increase the proportion of domestically produced chips, the price is also quite competitive, making Chinese manufacturers' market share in the global LED industry gradually increasing. 3. LED lighting customers continue to look for lower cost solutions LED lighting market demand is stimulated by a large number of demand due to the decline in the price of terminal lighting products. Looking forward to 2015, the main growth drivers of LED lighting products are still mainly from alternative light source products such as LED bulbs and LED tubes. Therefore, lighting customers are mainly considering the price and cost of LEDs. The medium-power LED with good cost performance can meet the requirements of continuous price reduction of these LED lighting products. For example, 3030 and 2835 LED have become the mainstream in the market. In the future, LED manufacturers will still look for better heat-dissipating materials, reduce the number of LEDs used by high-current driving, and even COBLEDs are gradually favored by lighting customers. In addition to the price reduction of LEDs, LED lighting manufacturers have begun to pay attention to other components such as drive power, and hope to achieve a lower cost solution through the overall system design. 4. Looking for special applications, the new blue ocean to increase profitability Due to the fierce competition in LED prices, LED manufacturers hope to find some new special applications to increase profits. For example, invisible LEDs are gradually receiving attention from LED manufacturers, including UV or IRLED applications. Although the market for invisible LEDs is limited, it cannot be compared to applications such as LED lighting or backlighting. However, due to technical difficulties, customization requirements, and the need to work closely with the system plant, it is high. The gross profit margin of invisible LED products is obviously better than that of white LEDs. From the perspective of supply chain, UVLED and IRLED are mainly dominated by Japanese and European and American manufacturers, and Taiwan LED manufacturers also have a place. In the future, more and more LED manufacturers will enter. Invisible light field. 5. The output value of automotive LEDs has been growing year by year. Among them, the LED lighting market has grown steadily with the growth of exterior lighting. Among them, the outdoor lighting (DRL) and headlights (H/Lbeam) have the best growth. The reason is still the technical improvement of high-power LEDs. With the decline in LED prices, automotive LED lighting has gradually shifted from high-end models to mid-range models, driving the demand for automotive lighting in the next few years. In addition, the LED application part of the car is still dominated by the LED backlight of the vehicle panel. With the increasing popularity of multimedia and sensing images, traditional instrument panels have been changed to LCD panels, driving the need for automotive backlights. 6. The trend of thin and light mobile phones, mobile phone backlight LED specifications to 0.4t into the current high-end mobile phones gradually thinning development, plus panel resolution, for LED manufacturers how to make LED lighter, higher brightness, for The 2015 challenge goal. At present, the brightness of the 0.4t LED mainstream backlight used by high-end smartphones is about 25002700mcd. In the case of 4.7 screens, the backlight module needs to use 1012 LEDs as the backlight. Because 0.4t is lighter and thinner than 0.6t, it is also the market. The thinnest LED in the backlight thickness of mass production products, the packaging technology threshold is relatively high, and the main supplier is currently supplying Japanese LED manufacturers. At present, the iPhone6's mobile phone backlight has been imported into 0.4tLED, and in the future it will even move toward a thinner 0.3tLED. 7. The number of FLASHLEDs used in high-end mobile phones has gradually increased Since the iPhone introduced two different color temperature FLASHLEDs, more and more mobile phone brand manufacturers have begun to follow up. Even some mobile phones emphasize the self-timer function of the mobile phone, and introduce a camera module with a front lens of 13 megapixels, and with 4 flash LEDs on the mobile phone for better photo effects. At present, the brightness of FlashLED is about 180240lm, and the number of each flash is between 12. With the improvement of mobile phone pixels, the specifications of FlashLED flashlights of mobile phone manufacturers are getting higher and higher, and the number of FlashLEDs is also growing. 8. The decline in shipments of tablet computers has affected the output value of tablet LED backlights. The number of tablet PC shipments has maintained a high growth trend in the past few years. Therefore, the LED backlight used in tablet computers is a key product that LED manufacturers consider to be the most growth potential. However, with the increase in the popularity of tablet computers and the gradual decline in product freshness, the number of tablet PC shipments declined for the first time in 2014. The number of shipments in the future will also decrease year by year. With the decline of ASP for LCD backlights and the year-on-year decline in tablet PC shipments, LEDinside estimates that the annual output value of flat-panel backlight LEDs will decline to US$476 million (YoY-21.7) in 2014, while the 2015 tablet The annual output value of backlight LED is about $412 million (YoY-13.4). 9. LED backlighting LED, toward two different directions to reduce the number of pixels and improve color saturation TV LED backlight with the change of backlight technology, as well as the price reduction pressure of the panel factory, making the TV LED backlight output value decline year by year. LEDinside estimates that the 2014 TV LED backlight output value is about 2.39 billion US dollars, the annual growth decline of 14.3, will continue to decline in 2015. However, from the perspective of TV LED backlight specifications, the future will develop in two directions. The low-end TV series requires the use of a larger current drive to reduce the number of LEDs used to reduce the cost. However, for high-end TV sets, in addition to improving LED brightness to meet the needs of 4K2K panels, LEDs with high color saturation specifications introduced into NTSC100 will also be the focus of LED manufacturers. 10. The penetration rate of small-pitch display has increased to the growth momentum of the display market. The LED display field has gradually matured and saturated, despite the Brazilian World Cup effect in 2014, driving the demand for LED display market in 2014. However, it is expected that in the next few years, there will be a lack of large-scale activities to drive public construction expenditures. Therefore, in the future, only new technologies, such as small-pitch display screens, can be used to create new market demands.