Can China "support" 200 million cars?

Wang Fuchang, deputy director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out on September 5 that it is expected that the number of vehicles in China will exceed 200 million by 2020, and the resulting energy security and environmental problems will become more prominent. Vigorously promoting energy conservation, emission reduction and industrialization of new energy vehicles in traditional vehicles has become a major issue that needs to be resolved in the Chinese automobile industry. (September 7th, Shenzhen Commercial Daily)

The rapid development of China’s automobile industry and the large number of small cars are rare in the international community. Some people think that this has changed the world's automobile pattern, "China's car may have secured the world's first, will not easily give way." However, when we were excited, we had to face some real problems. Can China's environmental space, transportation facilities, and petroleum resources accommodate and "feed" 200 million cars?

Let's look at the following set of data. It sounds the alarm for us:

The first is air pollution. At present, harmful gases emitted by Chinese automobiles are diffused into the air, causing air pollution to account for 70% or even 90% of air pollution in the entire city. The environmental pollution and human health hazard caused by automobile exhaust have become the main culprit of urban pollution in China.

The second is traffic congestion. According to statistics, currently in China’s nearly 700 medium and small cities, the total length of roads is less than 350,000 kilometers, and 350,000 kilometers of urban roads in this district have to accommodate more than 90% of the country’s motor vehicles, supporting more than 80% of economic and social operations. However, according to the average annual growth rate of domestic automobile consumption of 15%, urban roads will be fully saturated within five years.

The third is energy shortages. In 2009, China’s oil consumption reached 381.81 million tons. According to this calculation, even if domestic static oil reserves still have 10 billion tons, they can only be mined for 25 years or so. That is, by 2035, China’s domestic oil will be completely depleted.

Of these three issues, energy supply will be the most realistic issue. Some experts believe that according to China's energy supply capacity, the limit of its vehicle ownership is 150 million vehicles. According to the officials of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is expected that before 2020, this goal will be met or even exceeded, eventually reaching a holding of 200 million vehicles. This means that 200 million cars will likely squeeze the country's living space.

Gasoline is "oxygen" and "food" for automobiles. Although China is big, it is not a country, especially a country lacking in oil. "Phoenix Weekly" recently published the title "Are oil homes depleted after 25 years? The China Petroleum Insurance Bureau's article believes that every two people in the United States own a car. Assuming that China has one car for every three people, there will be 400 million private cars in the country. This will consume 200 million tons of gasoline each year. Because China's oil product rate is 63.7%, it is converted to oil is 350 million tons. This Yuguang car will drink the total amount of oil that China produces and imports in one year.

Some people may say that domestic oil is not enough and can be purchased in the international market. There is nothing wrong with this statement. Moreover, China does so now. From 1993, China’s oil demand was basically self-sufficient, and from then on, China began to import large amounts of oil. In 2009, China imported 199 million tons of petroleum, while the domestic oil extraction amounted to 189 million tons. In this calculation, China’s oil demand is 51.3% dependent on imports.

In the international arena today, the competition in the petroleum field has gone beyond the scope of pure commerce and has become a weapon of economic, military, and political struggle among big powers. The oil issue has once again become the focus of world attention, and the oil shortage has once again triggered a rethinking of the Chinese people's development strategy for the Chinese auto industry. In particular, energy is so tense to China and it has already mentioned the strategic height that threatens national security.

This of course exceeds the scope of China's auto ownership and consumption, but it is also an issue we cannot avoid. As we all know, the United States is currently the world's largest car producer and consumer, and is called the "country on wheels." However, the strong military power of the United States, as well as the global oil resources, are far beyond China’s reach. For example, China’s oil imports from the Middle East and Africa all need to pass through the Straits of Malacca. This sea area has always been very sensitive. If anything, it will touch China’s nerves.

Undoubtedly, the increase in the foreign dependence of PetroChina will also lead to the sales of automobiles. If it is not guided, the sales of automobiles will increase at an excessive speed, which will lead to a significant increase in oil consumption, resulting in a contradiction between supply and demand, and even trigger an energy crisis. China has to become a “country on wheels” and its outstanding contradictions are how energy supply can keep pace with the development of cars. If this problem is not solved well, it will be possible for cars to “eat” people and people become slaves to the car. This is not sensational, unbelieving, let us take a walk.