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The shortage of raw materials to promote the market to take a good run The country is driven by energy-saving emission reduction, the limited production of electricity in the region will not be able to completely improve the short-term phenomenon. The continuous production restriction of calcium carbide enterprises led to a rise in the market, and the tight supply of goods, coupled with the price increase of the original salt, the cost of chlor-alkali enterprises continued to increase due to this, the start can not reach the normal level. In order to balance production costs and downstream sales markets, chlor-alkali enterprises in various regions have experienced rapid price increases, especially in Henan, Shandong, and other regions. This is the first time in a short period of time that this year has seen a rapid pull-up.
Increase in demand, driving prices to rise sharply It is understood that the recent domestic non-ferrous metals market continues to take a good step, electrolytic aluminum is a continuous increase in prices, driven by a substantial increase in alumina demand, domestic alumina companies have increased the existing operating rate to varying degrees. And in October, it was also the centralized purchasing period of the alumina companies in the fourth quarter. As a result, the demand for caustic soda in the alumina enterprises suddenly increased sharply. The demand for caustic soda in other papermaking, chemical fiber, and chemical industries could not be met. Affected by this comprehensive interest, there was a step-up increase in prices after the caustic soda festival, and radiation from the caustic soda production areas such as Henan and Shandong quickly radiated to the surrounding areas.
Partially out of stock, speculation drove the overall atmosphere One of the reasons for the rapid advancement of the market was the lack of supply in some areas. Some small and medium-sized chlor-alkali enterprises in Henan Province have been unable to maintain normal production for a long period of time, and some companies have still stopped production so far, and some large-scale production enterprises such as Henan Shenma have also experienced a phenomenon that the operating rate is less than 50%. The instability of the supply caused the market. The quick pull up. It is also understood that due to shortage of supply in Henan, traders’ market speculation has also played a role in boosting the situation, and some small downstream demand companies have even appeared to rob the goods.
Exports are positive, and companies are increasing their confidence. Recently, exports of caustic soda have gradually improved in East China and other regions. Export orders have increased, and some lower-priced regions in the western region have also followed up. For example, Inner Mongolia rose from 900 yuan to over 1,100 yuan, or 22%. The Xinjiang region also rose by more than 10%, laying a solid foundation for the overall market.
However, it is worth noting that the recent increase in the price of caustic soda, in addition to raw material shortages and limited start-up, is still mainly affected by the concentration of downstream purchase orders. The centralized purchase of alumina companies has caused some chlor-alkali enterprises to temporarily increase their inventory to cope with the possible concentrated supply, and the external shipments have been limited. The purchases of chemical fiber, chemical, and papermaking enterprises cannot meet the demand, resulting in rapid price increase. . However, once alumina companies and other large purchase plans have been finalized, and supply has entered a stable period, short-term hot spots will surely be cooled. Market supply will not rule out instantaneous heavy-lift shipments, and the risk of adjustment will increase accordingly. .
At the same time, the chlor-alkali enterprises' operating rate has further increased significantly in recent years due to the encouragement of chlorine and alkali. In addition, the low-price sources in the west have begun to flow into the Mainland, and the tight supply situation will soon be eased, forming a hot and cold market. According to the trends of chlorine and alkali prices, if the liquid chlorine market can still maintain its current high level, the adjustment pressure of the caustic soda market will also increase, and investors should be vigilant to adjust the risk.
In addition, the side effects of short-term speculation in the market cannot be ignored. As market speculation cools down, caustic soda prices will rise to new deals and adjustments will follow. It is recommended that companies pay attention to recent macroeconomic policies, look at far market trends, avoid adverse impacts caused by short-term ups and downs, maintain a good attitude, integrate domestic enterprises in all regions, analyze upstream and downstream market information, and timely change business strategies to cope with adjustment risks; A good opportunity to increase exports and stabilize the domestic market.
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Caustic soda rises at high risk
After the National Day, the prices of caustic soda in Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other regions quickly rose, radiating overall market turnover in other regions of the country. The mainstream price in the northern region was up from 1,600 yuan (32% ion membrane or 100 tons, the same below) before the holiday to about 1900 yuan after the holiday, an increase of 18%, and the increase in East China and South China exceeded 10%. This year, a strong upward trend based on the maintenance of high levels of liquid chlorine. However, with the rise of caustic soda and liquid chlorine, the laws of chlorine and alkali have been broken in the past, and market adjustment pressure has also increased. Therefore, the market outlook should be alert to the risk of adjustment during the alternating hot and cold periods.