Weak recovery of construction machinery industry

After the rapid development in the first half of 2009-2011, the construction machinery entered the digesting inventory stage. The business climate in 2012 declined, and the market demand for construction machinery products shrank. Although the decline in sales of certain products in the first quarter of 2013 narrowed, it still did not Obviously, the overall recovery of the industry is relatively weak.

In the first quarter of 2013, the sales of earthmoving machinery continued to decline.

Excavators and loaders are the main types of earth-moving machinery products. The market trends are similar. The growth rate of sales volume decreased from 6.92% and 13.96% in 2011 to -35.03% and -29.46% in 2012. In the first quarter of 2013, both sales were sold. The increase was still negative, at -25.47% and -18.75%, respectively, but the decline has shown a certain narrowing. The cranes were affected by the slowdown in infrastructure investment construction such as downstream transportation and water conservancy. The growth rate of sales volume decreased from 0.89% in 2011 to -35.02% in 2012. In the first quarter of 2013, the decline narrowed to -32.09%. Although sales growth of concrete machinery in 2012 decreased, the overall decline was only about 2%, but its sales volume continued to increase in the first quarter of 2013.

With the recovery of infrastructure investment in the subsequent quarter of the year, China Bond Ratings maintained the overall weak recovery of construction machinery in 2013, but there was some differentiation in various product areas.

Infrastructure investment or warming of construction machinery products is expected to grow

In terms of infrastructure investment, downstream railway investment accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2012, and also achieved growth in the first quarter of 2013; highway investment showed a certain degree of weaker turnaround; investment growth in water conservancy construction in 2012 and 2013 saw a slight increase. As the infrastructure investment in the construction machinery sales leading index, the following quarters of the year will generally maintain this trend of weaker recovery, which will increase the demand for follow-up construction machinery products such as excavators and cranes. The 2013 sales volume of these products is expected to be positive. increase.

Real estate pressure concrete machinery recovery is weak

In 2013, overall investment in real estate development will face certain downward pressure. Affected by this, the concrete machinery with a relatively high proportion of real estate in the downstream demand will be under pressure in the short term, and considering the late-stage conduction effect of the project, the recovery of concrete machinery in the future will be weak.

In addition, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets in the mining industry in 2012 and 2013 was significantly lower than that of 2011 by 9.41 percentage points and 18.45 percentage points, respectively. Since the mining industry accounts for the largest proportion of the downstream demand for loader products, a significant reduction in investment growth in the mining industry will make it more difficult for loader products to improve in the short term, and then take into account the gradual substitution effect of excavators on loaders. The future loader market still has some pressure.