Japan and South Korea, which are within easy reach, have set an example for us. What is important is whether our entire industry can calm down from its turbulence and think about its own affairs: Geely, who was not optimistic about it, has now moved from a family business to today. Modern auto companies have transformed; Chery’s sedan formally entered the ranks of mainstream depots with 50,000 outstanding achievements in 2002; Brilliance succeeded in concentrating its business into the automotive industry, and China Saloon sold 18,000 units in seven months since its launch. , and cooperated with BMW to become a partner of international famous brands; Hafei, which successfully launched the horse racing, also launched Lubao, which has been recognized by the market...
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On June 10, 2004, when the Beijing International Auto Show kicked off, people who had not yet emerged from the excitement of the “Auto Industry Development Policy†formally released on June 1 were caught in a new round of “car†fever. Investment thresholds to improve, standardize the sales system, promote personal consumption ... have become the focus of attention of the industry and the public. However, in the new "policy" on "product development", although more than 300 words, but singled out as a chapter, in China's new arrival of the automobile era, this seemingly inconspicuous "product development" exactly what role?
"China's auto industry has a certain level of experience and experience in the development of commercial vehicles, but it still has a gap of 5 to 10 years compared to the world's advanced level. The major work undertaken by major Chinese car manufacturers in the development of new products is to The localization of multinational companies' models has given certain upgrades and improvements to certain products, and they have participated in some joint designs. However, due to the lack of complete self-development capabilities for cars, China’s major car products still do not have their own intellectual property rights. Recently, Zhao Ying, a researcher at the Policy Research Office of China National Automotive Industry Corporation, told the China Economic Weekly.
Some experts even stated that the most embarrassing aspect of the development of China's auto industry is that it has not formed its own R&D strength. The advantage brought by the joint venture is to provide foreign auto companies with channels to sell their own cars, but it does not make much contribution to the development of the Chinese auto industry.
It is gratifying that the new "policy" has provided regulations for the independent research and development of automobiles and their own brands. Although it is only a few words, it has already reflected the importance of actively developing products with independent intellectual property rights in China's auto industry and implementing brand management strategies.
Who is speaking on behalf of China?
It has been 18 years since the auto industry was established as a pillar industry in 1986. In the past 18 years, FAW, Dongfeng, and SAIC, which are the main bodies of the Chinese automobile industry, have not assumed the obligation to speak on behalf of the Chinese automobile industry. They are mainly for the domestic market, and the real right to have the right to speak is foreign technology and brand. So, what are the conditions for the Chinese auto industry to speak in the global automotive market? Why does China have no local auto company that can speak for itself in 18 years?
In March 1985, the establishment of the Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive Co., Ltd., a joint venture between China and Germany, opened a joint venture with the Chinese automobile industry to “define foreigners against foreigners†in the future.
The original intention of the policy at that time was that China had to take a high starting point, large quantities, and professional roads to develop cars. The leaders of the State Council hope that in the process of introducing the first-generation products in the form of CKD (domestic parts assembly abroad), they will accelerate the formation of self-development capabilities through digestion and absorption, and ultimately achieve the goal of getting rid of technology dependence and creating their own brands. This strategy was then summarized as "market-for-technology."
However, the "market" has not changed to "technology." The fact that independent research and development has been weak so far has proved that the change in the situation is far from the blueprint of the Chinese government. The strategy of “staffing for long-term skills to control foreigners†has not been ashamed. On the contrary, the joint venture road of the three major auto groups has gone very hard at each step. Moreover, supporting the three major groups from another perspective is equivalent to putting the fate of the entire Chinese auto industry on the top three auto groups.
The requirement for localization rate is an important process for obtaining "technology" from the "market". However, for a multinational company, the higher the degree of localization, the less profitable foreign capital will be. Therefore, both the general public and Citroen have adopted delayed tactics to delay the upgrade. And in terms of brand marketing, pricing, etc., foreign parties are always reluctant to relax control.
Blindly stressing the country's output has also brought another result. In the process of CKD, companies have to invest all capital and human resources in the process of localization. The capacity for independent development and design gradually shrinks. Funds are basically not invested in the development. Technological development organizations are gradually merged into organizations that provide services for localization. Technology is increasingly dependent on technology.
The huge market did not replace the technology of multinational companies, but it led to another result: private and other industrial capitals have been stunned by the auto industry and created a number of heroes. In 1996, “Car Madman†Li Shufu began planning to enter the automobile industry. In 2001, Geely was listed in the automobile catalog and obtained a license for legal production. Chunlan Group had launched the motorcycle and merger truck factory as early as the 1990s, and Tao Jianxing, the president of Chunlan Group, was concentrating on accumulating technology for entering the car manufacturing industry. Tao Jianxing, holding billions of dollars in his hands, promised once and again that he would pledge to invest billions of dollars in capital. If not, he could also absorb billions of funds.
By 2002, the “three littles†(Tianjin Xiali, Beijing Jeep, Guangzhou Peugeot), which had served as policy supporters, had a dismal picture: Tianjin Xiali had been merged, Guangzhou Peugeot had gone bankrupt, and Beijing Jeep was still waiting, replaced by Anhui Chery, The rise of non-stable car companies such as Shenyang Brilliance and Zhejiang Geely.
The win-win theory of “market-for-technology†proved to be a matter of wishful thinking in practice. Now, the market space is vacated to foreign companies, but technology and brand are still tightly tied to each other. In the 18 years after China’s auto industry was identified as a pillar industry, several giant national key enterprises did not even produce a self-owned car.
An industry expert who asked not to be named called for the Chinese auto industry to take the road of independent development. Otherwise, in the open international environment, the Chinese auto industry will cease to exist.
The source also stated that judging from the current technology and capital-intensive characteristics of the automotive industry, neither the government nor the automotive industry has much hope for the future of private and local auto companies. The government’s hopes for the development of the Chinese auto industry are still pinned on large-scale joint ventures. However, we must clearly understand that independent development is the hallmark of an independent industry. If the CKD method is used for replication, technology dependence will make the Chinese automobile industry an overseas processing factory of multinational corporations. It is also difficult for China to have local companies that speak for themselves.
Non-mainstream hope
At this time, those neglected non-mainstream car manufacturers will bring new hope to the Chinese auto industry.
On June 8th, the high temperature of 33°C did not block people's enthusiasm for watching cars and buying cars. The crowds of people in the showrooms of the Beijing Asian Games Village auto trading market were endless.
"I already have a master, and they haven't yet." In the showroom of Chery Automobile, it was written on a paper sign on the windshield of a red QQ car. A salesman at the scene told China Economic Weekly that seven or eight vehicles were sold every day and that more than 240 vehicles were sold each month.
In the exhibition hall of Geely Automobile, three or four workers are assembling a new car and giving the license plate. A salesperson named Wang told the China Economic Weekly: “The car has been sold and all licenses are in place. The owner comes to collect the car in the afternoon. Geely’s car has been sold very quickly recently, and there are about 10 vehicles a day. , monthly sales of about 300."
The soaring volume of sales shows consumers' recognition of them. It's no wonder that Geely and Chery's output have soared!
On April 15th, Jiangcheng Wuhu. The 200,000 Chery sedan with its own brand in China drove off the production line.
Chery’s sedan was approved for sale in January 2001 and it was manufactured in 2003. It has produced four models of passenger cars: Fengyun, Qiyun, QQ and Oriental Son. The number of production and sales rose year after year, with 30,000 vehicles in the first year, 50,000 vehicles in the second year, and 100,000 vehicles in the third year. Corporate assets have increased from 1.7 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan. This year's production and sales plan will reach 180,000-200,000 units, and will also export the entire vehicle production line. In 2003, Chery accounted for 90% of China's total car exports, and it became the first Chinese company to export car assembly plants and CKD parts. This cannot but be said to be a miracle developed independently by the Chinese national automobile industry.
May 21, Zhejiang Taizhou production base. Geely Group Chairman Li Shufu announced that the 210,000th Geely car will be rolled out in the 21st century.
Geely Group achieved sales growth of nearly 120% in 2002; Geely's production and sales volume increased from 13th in the country to 9th in 2003, and its share in the economical car market was close to 20%. Its sedan was first exported abroad. 400 Geely cars exported to the Middle East and the United States market and achieved a good market response. In early 2004, as the Geely car that insisted on independent research and development, it also put forward the grand goal of the first batch of large-scale export, and in the future development plan, it proposed that exports should occupy 25%-30% of Geely's total sales.
The sales of Chery, Geely, Hafei, Chang'an and other self-owned brands were once considered by public opinion to be "using China's huge market capacity to cultivate their own car brands."
Independent brands that lack technology, financial support, and policy protection are doomed to be independent and self-reliant since the day they were born. Xu Gang, president of Geely Holding Group, said that one leg is never far away, and only by learning to walk on both legs, and combining the introduction and going out, can we walk more steadily and faster. This is a stronger and bigger independent brand. only way.
Is the determinism of scale a reality or a fallacy?
An assertion that has become cliché has always influenced and influenced the autonomy path of the Chinese auto industry. That is, the development of independent products must be based on a considerable production scale.
In an interview with the media, a leader of a Chinese auto company stated: “The automobile industry is a large-scale industry. Only when a certain scale can we engage in research and development, it is different to make 100,000 vehicles surely and make 1 million vehicles. Nowadays, domestic companies Therefore, it is not possible to develop independently, and the key is still a matter of scale, because the auto industry needs a scale to support. The development of the Chinese auto industry is now only using absorption methods to solve the problem of localization, which is China's current reality."
In this year's two sessions, the leadership of an automobile group raised the threshold further: Drawing on the experience of international automobile brand development, the research and development of a mature automobile independent brand generally requires the company to reach a production scale of 2 million, and a billion dollars. The investment in fixed assets, operating expenses of one billion US dollars, also requires 8,000 to 10,000 technical R&D teams and about 30 laboratories. He stressed that at present, the largest domestic automobile company has a production scale of no more than 1 million vehicles, and capital investment and R&D teams are even less able to compare with international auto giants. Based on this, the road to self-owned brands in the Chinese auto industry still has a long way to go. It has been difficult to achieve for several generations and decades. Another general manager put it even more emphatically: The auto companies that we Chinese control and play a dominant role will certainly emerge. The premise is that after the Chinese auto market reaches 10 million, the market is stable and the industrial base is complete.
Such a high threshold has made many manufacturers daunting, leading to the head of some domestic auto companies publicly stated: "When the annual production of 6 million vehicles, it is possible to have the opportunity of independent brand development."
This argument was dismissed by Jia Xinguang, a research fellow of the China Automotive Industry Consulting Development Corporation, as "fabrication of myths." This myth first of all met a paradox of chickens or eggs: the latecomers must first have a production scale to become autonomous. Development, but no product does not matter the scale of production. Thus, this myth essentially became a pretext for relying on foreign product technology: the backward countries must first rely on the introduction of foreign product technology to make the scale bigger, and then have the financial resources for independent development. However, facing the market booming for two consecutive years, we only saw these key companies' financial resources rolling, but they did not see their efforts for independent development. What's more, according to the standards stated by the leaders of the above-mentioned companies, FAW and SAIC should have “had inevitably developed capabilities†for a long time.
Ironically, foreign companies have long since broken these myths. In 1984 when Shanghai Volkswagen’s Santana project was launched, there were only 30,000 production capacity, which was inconsistent with the scale requirements of China’s policy formulation and the “internationally recognized†economic scale. Only after the market potential was confirmed, Shanghai Volkswagen only expanded its production scale, reaching 60,000, 120,000, 160,000, 200,000, and 230,000 in several stages to reach today's 400,000 production scale. The fundamental difference between German Volkswagen and Chinese in decision-making thinking lies in the fact that the former has a market concept and the latter does not, and the German public has always been a consistent strategy in China for 20 years. This proves that scale determinism is totally groundless.
In fact, no country in the world has ever followed these myths that certain decision makers have made the truth. The annual output of the Japanese auto industry was only close to 500,000 units in 1960. However, at this time, it not only embarked on the road of fully independent development, but also began to take off. Its export rate has exceeded 8%. Toyota's self-developed Toyota Motor Company produced 22,786 vehicles (32.5% of which were sedan cars) in 1955. When its vehicle production reached nearly 155,000 vehicles in 1960, Toyota's production method, which later shocked the world, has already taken shape.
Jia Xinguang said that the best example of breaking this tone is the rise of the Korean auto industry. The Korean automotive industry was born in 1962 when the Korean government promulgated the "Act for the Support of the Automotive Industry" to promote the establishment of the first modern automobile assembly plant. Like companies in other developing countries, Korean auto companies started by assembling foreign models, and they also used foreign companies to sell shares to foreign companies. However, the development path of Korean companies has two distinctive features: (1) Adhering to the autonomy of technological learning; (2) Taking self-development as a strategic goal, and constantly elevating at the level of technological learning.
Whether it is the Japanese automobile industry in the 1950s or the Korean automobile industry in the 1970s, both the scale of the individual companies and the scale of the entire industry (both measured in terms of annual production) are smaller than today’s Chinese auto industry, but both have Embarking on the track of comprehensive self-development, both of which have begun to take off as the symbol of high-speed expansion of production, have begun to have the momentum of sweeping the world market in the future.
Catch up with the pattern
The State Council Reform Office's scholar Miao Guoxi said: "An international division of labor characterized by the globalization of industrial development is taking shape: at the top of this division of labor is the development of new technologies and new products; followed by the core component producers; Once again, it is an accessory production and processing and assembly country; the fourth is the resource-supplying country, and the bottom is the product-selling country. It is difficult for all countries to seek their own interests outside this framework of international division of labor."
Obviously, China’s auto industry is at a lower level in the international division of labor structure and faces a double dilemma: it cannot share the high profits of the development of the world auto industry with the developed countries, but also gives the Chinese auto market to the world’s giants, allowing them to earn higher profits. Added value. Although the Chinese are not reconciled, they are a reality that they have to endure for a long time.
After analyzing and comparing, Zhai Guoyi came to a conclusion: “There are only two modes for the development of the auto industry in the backward countries: the Japan-Korea model and the Brazilian model. The former is under the high degree of protection. The government supports a few key enterprises and imports foreign technologies through introduction. Develop models with independent intellectual property rights to form the road for the development of the national auto industry that is independently involved in international competition; the latter, under the protection of high tariffs by the State, encourages multinational automobile companies to carry out localized production through joint ventures to form a multinational corporation. 'Foreign brands' compete with each other to divide the domestic market, and national auto companies have always lacked competitiveness and can only occupy a lower position in the international division of labor."
From the late 1980s, the Chinese auto industry began to emphasize the study of the “Japan-Korea model†and adopted a protection policy that was even worse than that of the two countries. However, reality tells us that China's auto industry has not been successful. On the contrary, the Chinese auto industry has been able to embark on the “Brazil modelâ€. When the international auto giants developed rapidly in China, the national auto industry has not made significant progress. At present, there are 15 sedan manufacturers in China, 14 of which are joint ventures. The foreign partners of the joint venture include all the automobile giants in the world. Almost all of them are producing foreign brands, and the core R&D is not in China. As long as China's auto industry policy has not materially changed, it will become a fact that multinational corporations will control the Chinese auto industry after a few years. Jia Xinguang lamented this: "This kind of industrial development model will not develop China's own auto brand. If this continues, China will embark on a path of no return like Brazil." At present, there are many joint ventures including the three major groups. Although the profits obtained are substantial, the independent research and development capabilities have not improved significantly. Originally hoped to use the market for technology through joint ventures, but due to the constraints of foreign joint ventures and the lack of market size and related industry support, most of the joint venture's research and development level is limited to adaptive redevelopment.
“Now it is a local company, not a joint venture company, that bears the historic task of raising the level of independent research and development. On the one hand, the country supports local companies in terms of capital, taxation, and market. On the one hand, local companies like Geely, Chery and Brilliance are like Korean companies. As hard as it is, there will be plays with independent intellectual property rights," Jia Xinguang said with certainty.
How to dominate the right to speak?
From the perspective of the development of the global automotive industry and our country’s ambiguous auto joint ventures, the core, independent right of speech, is the independent intellectual property of technology.
The independent intellectual property rights must be developed and designed by oneself, understand the technology by oneself, improve the design by oneself, and carry out brand innovation. Now, the domestic self-development model is that there is no knowledge of property rights and no imitation of innovation. This topic has also become an irretrievable pain in the hearts of domestic automakers.
“The independent intellectual property rights are directly linked to independent brands. Good brands are linked to good products,†said Xu Min, deputy general manager of Chery.
The history of Chery's adherence to the road of independent research and development undoubtedly strengthens the confidence that we can gain the right to speak in a car.
In order to ensure the quality of new product development, Chery has created at least three firsts in the history of China's automobile industry in recent years: Chery Automobile has become China's first side impact test success; Chery has become the first company in China to pass independent Tricycle organizations that are ISO/TS16949.1999 edition certified vehicle manufacturers are expected to pass TS16949.2002 certification in November this year (Chinese auto manufacturers have not yet obtained this certification); Chery also invests 7 100 million yuan has introduced one of the world's most advanced paint lines (only five such lines worldwide).
At present, Chery has basically completed preliminary planning for product development and design in the next five years. The engine project will be used in cooperation with AVL Austria to develop an engine with international standards and it is expected to be produced in volume next year. The cooperation in the development of gearbox projects with famous foreign companies and the development of complete vehicles with a well-known European design company are proceeding in an orderly manner. Chery has gradually formed its own unique technology development platform with international standards. In the development process, we fully implement the PLM concept of the product lifecycle management concept, make the products closely follow the market requirements, and develop a 3D design software system in the development environment, which has basically reached the world advanced level.
Chery currently has 18 engines in active development. At the end of this year, the TTI supercharged engine will be born at Chery, which will fill the gaps in the country and will be ranked first in the world; China's first V-engine that meets Euro IV emission standards will also be available in the first half of next year. . In the next few years, Chery will launch 3 to 4 new cars each year.
Chery also hired Italian designers to design the entire vehicle and interior design. Japanese engineers conducted mechanical research, and then reviewed the performance of the entire vehicle through advanced automotive appraisal departments in Germany, the United Kingdom, and other countries. Zero, modular supply, so that the advantages of various resources to complement each other, access to such as the East's son, Qiyun and a number of models with independent property rights.
Chery’s new Chinese auto technology development model pioneered by China has increasingly demonstrated its strong vitality. It is understood that many foreign car design companies are coming to China to find opportunities. Many outstanding automotive technicians are also willing to come to China to work. This kind of development mode is different from other domestic manufacturers in designing an entire vehicle model to a foreign design company and simply “borrowing chicken eggsâ€, thus avoiding the situation of “having property rights and no knowledgeâ€. In this way, Chery spends little money and not only has intellectual property rights, but also raises the level of his own R&D team. It can be believed that in the near future, Chery’s technological accumulation will eventually bear fruit.
In this regard, Yin Tongyao, Chairman of Chery’s company, commented: “In the development process, we feel that we are on the right track. Therefore, the more confidence you make, the more you will become more savory, and the more space you make, the greater the space for Chery. The integration, using global technological advantages, has greatly shortened the technological development process. Before the Koreans and Japanese could do it, we can certainly do it.â€
There are two good news in the new "Automotive Industry Development Policy" for the people to comfort. One is that the specific expression of “KD (Part Assembly)†in the new industrial policy is that “the same duty as the imported vehicle is levied on the imported vehicle parts that constitutes the characteristics of the vehicleâ€. Another strategy is that foreign auto companies entering China must establish corresponding technology research and development institutions while importing products. These two points can curb the spread of KD production. Regardless of whether it is for domestic auto industry or ordinary consumers, it has positive significance.
Twenty years ago, domestic cars started from KD. After 20 years, KD became popular again, and the domestic auto industry drew a circle. However, if we look at the history of domestic autos for 50 years, this circle is actually far-fetched. Take the two domestic auto brands owned by the FAW Group as "red flags" and "liberation", that year was also a KD model, but its nature was completely different, and at least it had its own brand. "Red Flag" first borrowed from the Soviet Union "Jim", "Gis", and later borrowed from the German Audi and the United States Lincoln, "Liberation" was initially set Soviet Union truck. Nanjing Automobile "Yuejin" first borrowed from the Soviet Union "Muse 51," and the "Shanghai" brand car originally borrowed Poland "Warsaw." In fact, the earliest automobile industry has given us a path to development. It was only because we did not do a good job and we chose other models.
Based on the basis of the production of parts and components that our country already possesses today, the earliest industrial model has been fairly recapitulated. Actually, auto companies such as Geely, Chery, Zhonghua, and Hafei, which are gradually being favored by the industry, are following this path, and their initial successes show that autonomous development is not an outdated thing.
“Maybe these Chinese companies’ attempts to develop cars autonomously are still rough, but compared to it, some of the more powerful auto companies are clamoring for the KD model. This is by no means the way out for the domestic auto industry, at least not for Chinese auto companies. The attitude of performance." Jia Xinguang frankly.
A single spark can start a prairie fire. Although the road to independent research and development of the Chinese automobile industry has been tortuous, it has already embarked on a journey. The promulgation of the new "Automobile Industry Policy" will provide the most favorable policy guarantee and the greatest thrust for independent research and development.
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