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The truth of the LED packaging industry: LED lighting module profit high photoelectric engine is sought after
At present, the LED industry market is like a green field with a large number of players, and the pattern is scattered. Some of the top LED lighting brands such as Philips, Osram, Panasonic, General Electric, Vision Brand, Fort Ord, Toshiba, Cooper Lighting, Cree, Haber, etc. occupy a total market share of no more than 30% in the lighting industry. Most of the rest of the market space is dominated by smaller suppliers and emerging companies with unique products and innovative business models. Therefore, there are many opportunities in the LED lighting market, but the competition is particularly fierce. LED lighting modules may be more profitable than lamps. Just as innovative technologies and business models are driving the development of the computer industry, the LED industry will continue to mature. The next generation of LED lighting will drive industry growth by leading-edge LED companies that can see market trends and take advantage of the latest technology. 1. The competition in the LED lighting industry will be more intense, especially in the LED packaging field. In some aspects, LED lighting is similar to computer CPU. A complex finished product is assembled by different manufacturers, contractors and suppliers. to make. Both are driven by semiconductor processes. Just as Moore's Law predicts an increase in CPU and memory performance over the years, LED performance and luminous efficiency are also driven by transistor density and manufacturing processes. Moore's Law was proposed by Gordon Moore, one of Intel's founders. The content is: When the price is constant, the number of components that can be accommodated on the integrated circuit will double every 1824 months, and the performance will be doubled. In other words, the performance of computers that can be bought for every dollar will more than double every 1824 months. This law reveals the speed of advances in information technology. The LED packaging market is like a CPU, and it needs to continuously improve the production process to improve performance. However, the CPU in the computer industry is monopolized by the Intel Group, while the LED industry has several competitive leading brands and some local suppliers, so the market competition will be more intense. Price competition in this market segment means that LED package prices will continue to decline while performance continues to increase. According to foreign industry insiders, the most cost-effective high-efficiency LED lighting module will drop to 0.13 US dollars / W at the end of 2015, and the price of LED lighting module with 150 lm / W performance will drop to 0.10 US dollars / W at the end of 2016. the following. 2. Value source will be transferred from LED lighting components to drivers and cooling modules As expected above, the cost of lighting modules for a 100W LED luminaire will reach around $10 by the end of 2016. The same 100W mid-range and high-end LED luminaires, the cost of the thermal module or LED driver will be two to three times that of the lighting components. The value of LED lighting products will shift from LED lighting components to LED drivers and thermal modules. This is because the manufacturing process of LED packages will become more and more automated, and the price of LED lighting components will become cheaper and cheaper. However, the production of heat dissipation modules and LED drivers is more dependent on raw materials and labor costs, and lacks price flexibility. Unless the price of the raw material changes, the material cost of the heat sink module or LED driver is almost constant without excessive fluctuations. 3. The gross profit margin of LED lighting modules will continue to impact other zero devices. Compared with LED drivers and thermal design, LED packaging requires high manpower and capital investment. Not only must we build a factory, but we also need to invest a lot of money to purchase packaging equipment. In addition, high operating costs and manpower reserves are required. Coupled with fierce competition, the profit is meager. On the other hand, in the LED power supply and cooling industry, several advanced design engineers are enough to design effective cost-effective products with relatively low labor costs. And the equipment used to manufacture LED drivers and cooling modules often does not need to be so professional, and it is also cheaper to use depreciated equipment and has a large profit margin. Therefore, the LED lighting module's gross margin will be higher than other zero devices. 4. COB packaging will have a bright future As the cost of raw materials declines, the quality and efficiency of COB continue to increase. Sales of COB packaging products will continue to rise in the next few years. Especially for compact COBs with more LED luminaire designs. There are already 100W, 200W, and even more than 300W COB LEDs on the market. Only a strong COB plus high-quality lens, cooling module and low-power LED driver can help LED luminaire manufacturers produce a 100W~300W (system light efficiency over 100 lumens / watt, CRI80) lighting products . The material cost of COB packaged luminaires is significantly lower than that of traditional package luminaires, and the assembly process is simplified, further reducing labor costs.