· Three types of enterprises compete for autonomous driving L3 market 2020 began to break out

As a new opportunity for China's auto industry to seize the commanding heights and lead the global auto industry, smart cars have been introduced in the past two years with the support of a number of national support policies, and the layout of automakers, component companies and technology companies has continued to increase. I am quickly getting rid of the shackles of the "show muscles" that can only be closed in the test field, and enter the general public's sight.

On January 29th, Pony.ai, a self-driving startup company, announced that it would start normal operation trial operation in Nansha, Guangzhou, and realize the first unmanned vehicle trial operation for the domestic unmanned car company. The next day, Baidu Autopilot startup Jingchi Technology held the launching ceremony of the unmanned normal test operation in Guangzhou Bio Island, announcing that the general public can make an appointment to test their L4 driverless cars from now on... although the two companies The scale of trial operation is not large, but there is still a lot of embarrassment in the domestic auto-driving field, which has enabled more companies to accelerate the pace of research and development, seize the heart of the autopilot track, and promote domestic autopilot into a new development stage.

"According to the current situation, 2018 is expected to become the first year of Robot Taxi testing." Last week, Lu Yuanxing, the director of Weilai Capital, said at the 2018 Global Autopilot Forum hosted by Gasgoo.

As a new opportunity for China's auto industry to seize the commanding heights and lead the global auto industry, smart cars have been introduced in the past two years with the support of a number of national support policies, and the layout of automakers, component companies and technology companies has continued to increase. I am quickly getting rid of the shackles of the "show muscles" that can only be closed in the test field, and enter the general public's sight.
In Lu Yuanxing's view, the current autopilot participants are mainly divided into three categories: one is Demos, which is to develop intelligent driving technology that can be mass-produced in a limited area. Such projects are more in Singapore, Israel and Japan; The second category is to make services, such as Uber, Didi, Lyft, etc., all engaged in autonomous driving related research and development, in which Uber even plans to achieve auto-driving vehicle service within 18 months; the third category is Automakers, such as Audi, GM, Volvo, Volkswagen, Nissan, BMW, Ford, Daimler, etc., have already issued a timetable for the launch of autonomous vehicles. According to the schedule of these companies, there will be some volume in 2020. The production car appeared.
“Although autopilot is still at a critical stage in the transition from L2 to L3, with the maturity of technologies such as chips, algorithms, and high-precision maps, and the continuous improvement of policies and regulations, it is expected that the L3 autopilot market will start from 2020. The outbreak will occur, and in 2020-2025, the growth rate of the L3, L4, and L5 markets will approach 100%."
In particular, Lidar is one of the indispensable sensors for autonomous vehicles. At present, some laser radar products can meet the needs of car manufacturers in terms of performance, indicators and cost. For example, Velodyne's most popular laser radar system, the VLP-16, announced a price cut in early 2018, from the previous $7,999 to $3,999, which greatly reduced the threshold for autonomous driving. As another key technology for self-driving cars, car chips are also ushered in rapid development. Looking at the market, in the past two years, many auto companies and related chip companies have made autopilot chips as an important area for layout. Like the car "Rookie" Tesla, it has been confirmed that it is developing autopilot chips. In addition, advances in algorithms, in-vehicle Ethernet and other technologies have provided strong support for the rapid development of autonomous driving.

When it comes to specific applications, Lu Yuanxing said that in the future, autonomous driving will land faster in the logistics field than in the passenger car field because the scene is relatively simple. Some companies in this area are already in the process of setting up, like Tesla is doing driverless trucks. The domestic autopilot startup Tucson Future is also targeting unmanned cargo trucks and showcasing L4 at 2018CES. A prototype of a driverless truck.

Roland Berger’s executive director Ye Liang’s point of view coincides with Lu Yuanxing. Ye Liang believes that no matter how the OEMs promote their own autonomous driving technology, according to the degree of technology involvement in the driving process, the overall situation is still in the stage of L2 to L3 transition, not reaching the L3 level, but in the next 3 years or Reach some of the third level, which is 2020.
"In the domestic market, you can see that in the past two years, the traditional automobile group is working hard on automatic driving, and has developed a detailed mass production plan. To summarize these plans, domestic car companies will reach the L3 development level in 2020, and In 2025, it entered the L4 stage. However, due to the early investment, large scale, and some multi-level development strategies, it is expected that vehicles with L4 level will be launched around 2020, which is earlier than domestic."
However, it is worth noting that although autonomous vehicles will gradually be put into mass production in the next few years and frequently enter the public's sight in various modes, this does not mean that they will soon enter the ordinary people's home like traditional cars. Become a product that the general public can afford.

According to Roland Berger's judgment on China's autonomous driving policy, even in 2020, China may only open roads in specific areas of the city for autonomous vehicle testing, and allow L3 autopilot on some highways. By 2025, the L4 and L5 automatic driving in the specific areas of the city is expected to be open, and the automatic driving will enter the new development stage of sub-regional advancement. After 2025, the auto-driving area limit will be gradually released. From the limited scene to the more scenes, and even the whole scene, the whole process is gradual, not one-step.

Perhaps now we see that many companies are directly developing high-level self-driving cars, such as Google and Uber. However, for commercial applications, only a well-developed self-driving car is not enough. It also requires laws and regulations. Collaboration of insurance, road infrastructure, etc. From this point of view, even if a company has developed a self-driving car that is mature in technology and can satisfy various usage scenarios, it still cannot get on the road immediately.

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