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As the US crude oil business inventories have increased substantially, and high stocks have always been directly proportional to the oscillations of oil prices, experts from China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation believe that the price oscillations in 2007 will exceed the 2006 level. Therefore, experts believe that it is necessary for the relevant departments and various industry entities to conduct more detailed analysis of the operating strategies of international organizations, otherwise it will be difficult to grasp their own destiny.
The behind-the-scenes power of oil prices has been the driving force behind the rapid changes in oil prices from 2006 to the United States. There are three means to manipulate oil prices. First, the market’s expectations of oil demand are affected by the opinions of EIA, the Federal Reserve, and other agencies; secondly, it controls the production of Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The government of the oil-producing countries is about the market’s expectation of oil supply; third, the price of oil futures is manipulated by hedge funds held by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other consortiums.
Of the three U.S. government measures, the third is the most subtle and effective. Today, the size of the global hedge fund has exceeded one trillion US dollars. If a hedge fund takes 1% of the funds to carry out oil spot trading, it can cause imbalance of oil supply and demand for more than 100 days; if hedge funds use 1% of funds for oil futures trading, the impact on the oil market will be magnified several times. . When hedge funds do “long†in the oil futures market, they often combine other oil brokers or large oil companies to take corresponding measures (such as several large hedge funds and large oil companies jointly create oil supply and demand imbalances) to artificially raise oil futures prices Thus, the manipulation of oil prices has been moving in the direction they expected.
Yan Yaling, a senior analyst at Bank of China (5.02,0.17,3.51%), said that in 2006, Paulson, the former chief executive of Goldman Sachs, was the new Treasury secretary of the Bush administration and the US government’s strategic intentions were more clear.
She said that in order to help Bush implement the strategy, in fact Goldman Sachs has indeed adjusted or cut gasoline futures three times in the near future. Goldman Sachs’ move has caused oil prices to face heavy pressure and is also one of the important reasons for the drop in oil prices; these may be the non-negligible politics of falling oil prices. Combination of chain effect factors.
The economic trap of low oil prices The experts of the Sinopec Group believe that the short-term energy strategy of the United States is to use Goldman Sachs and other financial groups to increase world oil prices in order to achieve the goal of one stone and two birds: to rapidly increase world oil prices, combat the Chinese economy, and lure China to blindly conduct overseas oil Capital expansion; then quickly suppress world oil prices to lock in the Chinese economy.
At present, the strategy of the US consortium is operating accurately. In recent years, Chinese companies have accelerated overseas mergers and acquisitions: In 2004, the amount of mergers and acquisitions was 7 billion U.S. dollars, and in 2005 soared to 14 billion U.S. dollars. PricewaterhouseCoopers expects to reach new heights in 2006, and the main body of mergers and acquisitions will remain the two major oil companies in China.
Johnsonson Quidoop, a Chinese analyst with the New York Political Risk Consultancy, warned that China will eventually find that in the global resource market downturn, having a lot of exaggerated contracts will repeat the mistakes of Japan in the 1980s. We will now use peak prices to buy resources. In the event that its economy fails in one way or another, we will see real price falls and other serious injuries.
In fact, the current situation has made oil companies nervous. However, the oil industry is not yet the biggest victim of low oil prices. Under the threat of high oil prices, China's new energy industries such as ethanol and methanol have just started.
According to Credit Suisse, ethanol producers earned 86 cents per gallon when oil prices were around $70 and corn prices were around $2.50 per bushel last summer. At present, with oil prices approaching $50 and corn prices exceeding $4, it will lose 21 cents per gallon.
Given the U.S.'s ability to manipulate oil prices, oil prices will quickly rise when new energy investments are abandoned. If the relevant departments are not fully prepared, the Chinese economy will suffer heavy losses.
China's economic development in 2007 needs to be alert to the current low oil price risk
In the first half of 2006, high oil prices caused China's transportation, petrochemical, and textile industries to struggle at the edge of losses. In the second half of the year, the high dipping oil prices have "tumbled" China's exploration, new energy, coal chemical, and other industries to a bit of a dilemma.