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One is to control carbon dioxide emissions; the other is to protect the country's energy security. Regulations require that the national automobile fuel efficiency from 2005 to 2008 be higher than the United States by 15% to 20%
Our reporter Chen Yingzhao
Ten years ago, China was still a low carbon dioxide emitter. Today, it is already the second largest emitter after the United States. The rapidly expanding Chinese auto industry is bringing this country into the automobile society. Traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and energy crisis have become unavoidable derivatives.
“For the Chinese auto industry, it is more serious than investment overheating and redundant construction. It is an impending social crisis in the automobile society.†“Veteran†figures who have been working in the automotive industry for 22 years—the current State Council Development Research. Chen Qingtai, deputy director of the center, expressed his concerns recently.
According to the "Financial Times", China's first mandatory regulation to control vehicle fuel consumption will be promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission. This regulation will guide China's automobile society in a mandatory way.
Car social difficulties
While China’s auto industry is making a huge contribution to GDP, the social and environmental costs the government pays for the auto industry are rising at an alarming rate.
A recent research report from Harvard University shows that under the Sino-foreign automobile joint venture model over the past 10 years, almost all outdated exhaust emission technologies have been transferred by foreign automakers to China, resulting in China’s automobile exhaust emission standards. Most developed countries have fallen behind for more than 10 years. When Europe and the United States and other countries have begun to implement the "Europe IV" emission standard, commercial vehicles and cars running in Chinese cities and villages are still mostly "European I" (Latin 2) standards, and only a few reach "Europe II" (Latin Article 4) Standards.
“Not only are the standards lagging behind, but implementation standards are still uneven across the country,†said Fang Maodong, a researcher at the China Automotive Technology and Research Center in Tianjin. In many cities in China, carbon dioxide emissions are about twice as high as those of European vehicles, even if they have carbon dioxide emissions standards. Hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide emissions are more than three times those of European vehicles.
The socio-economic costs brought by automobiles are also rising. Taking Beijing and Shanghai as examples, according to local environmental protection agency data, the air pollution caused by automobiles has accounted for more than 90% of urban pollution in recent years; the incidence of lung disease has turned over in the past 30 years. It caused a huge medical cost. The World Bank estimates that China’s GDP has been offset by 5% because of the increase in medical costs caused by air pollution and the loss of workers’ productivity.
Due to the explosive growth of car ownership, traffic congestion is becoming the biggest headache for managers in major cities. In Beijing, where the number of motor vehicles has exceeded 2 million vehicles, the speed of the main roads during the peak period is only 11 km/h; Shanghai has to insist on implementing a license fee policy of 30,000-40,000 yuan per vehicle in order to ease traffic. .
Another crisis that accompanies the automobile society is energy. Authoritative statistics show that China’s current motor vehicles consume 85% of the country’s total oil production and 42% of the total diesel production. Zhang Xiaoji, president of the China Machinery Industry Association, estimates that if China's GDP will continue to grow at more than 7% over the next 20 years, the annual sales of automobiles will increase by more than 10%.
"This means that oil consumption will also grow rapidly. The shortage of oil supply will be more prominent," he said.
Mandatory strike
"Financial Times" was informed that, according to the National Development and Reform Commission prepared to introduce mandatory regulations for the consumption of fuel for automobiles, each type of vehicle sold in China must submit an application for fuel consumption certification to the testing agency and reach the regulatory minimum limit. , can be listed for sale.
According to Fang Maodong of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, one of the drafters of this regulation, the regulations are mainly motivated by two reasons: First, control of carbon dioxide emissions; second, protection of national energy security. The regulation requires that from 2005 to 2008, the national automobile fuel efficiency should reach a level of 15% to 20% higher than that of the United States.
In the United States, since 1975, if the manufacturer fails to meet the average fuel consumption standard, each phase difference is 0.1 mile/gallon, and each vehicle will be fined US$5; if the new car's fuel consumption is seriously exceeded, purchase The person will also be punished. Due to the implementation of a mandatory automobile fuel efficiency policy, the United States alone saved 190 million tons of crude oil and US$92 billion in costs in 2000.
Experts in the automotive industry analyze that once the above regulations are promulgated and implemented, domestic high-fuel vehicles such as SUVs and large-displacement high-end luxury cars will bear the brunt of the impact. "According to this standard, Great Wall, ZTE, Beijing Jeep and other SUV manufacturers, as well as Honda, Volkswagen, General Motors and other large-scale high-end luxury car manufacturers, will be affected by varying degrees." Regulators drafters said.
Experts predict that in the next few years, most car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, General Motors, and Honda will greatly increase their investment in fuel-efficient and economic diesel cars. Since 2000, some manufacturers have begun piloting diesel cars in individual cities in China.
It is understood that the National Development and Reform Commission will also issue a new "Automobile Industry Development Policy" recently. This document will start with strict auto project approval, blocking the assembly of inferior vehicles from the root, forbidding the transfer and sale of auto product certifications, and illegally setting up joint ventures and other means of “selling shellsâ€, strictly restricting various types of capital without technology. Entering the automotive sector; governments at all levels are prohibited from using financial funds for new construction and expansion of automobile projects; for unapproved automobile projects, commercial banks may not be allowed to make loans, and land administration authorities may not approve land acquisition.
At the same time, for the existing vehicle manufacturers that do not have the corresponding design and development capabilities, the country will determine the deadline to improve and improve, overdue can not meet the requirements, the deadline to exit the vehicle manufacturing.