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Good days seem to be back. In January 2007, China’s heavy truck market opened higher and higher with 27,629 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 136.44%. In March, 53,502 vehicles replaced the 43 584 vehicles in August 2004 that occupied the top position for monthly heavy truck sales, but soon, this The number was replaced by 53,929 in April.
According to industry data, as of the end of August 2007, the sales volume of the heavy truck market has reached 334,552 units, which is 108.87% of the total sales in 2006. Even more optimistic market participants expect heavy truck market sales this year will reach 480,000.
For this reason, the three heavy truck companies that own the Steyr platform have substantially raised their annual production and sales targets. China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. is locked in production and sales of 100,000 vehicles (previously 80,000 vehicles) this year, Shaanxi Automobile Heavy Trucks has a target of 60,000 vehicles (previously 50,000 vehicles), and Beiqi Foton has also adjusted its target to 60,000 vehicles.
But will this be another 2004? In that year, China’s heavy truck sales reached an unprecedented 374,833 units, and the industry exclaimed overheated and warned heavy truck companies to be calm about this irrational high-speed growth. Sure enough, in 2005 after heavy truck companies increased their production and sales plans, the heavy truck market fell back to 236,230. Despite a one-year adjustment period, the heavy-duty truck market grew slightly to 303,592 units in 2006, but it is still 71,241 fewer than in 2004.
This year’s skyrocketing demand for heavy-duty trucks has caused speculation among analysts. Some people attributed this to fixed asset investment and vehicle renewal. Some people attributed it to export growth and the substitution of middle-card products, and also categorized it as a change in user demand. Of course, the most humorous statement is "unexplainable."
The author engaged in investigations in the heavy truck market for many years. After three months of research and analysis, he believes that, in fact, for the heavy truck market, the country's macroeconomic environment this year is not much more positive. The above reasons are only minor factors. The real reason for the demand expansion in the heavy truck market is the gradual implementation of weight-based charging policies.
In 2000, the Ministry of Communications opened the premise of overreaching work in the history of China's transportation in the “Regulations on the Administration of Oversized Transport Vehicles Driving Roadsâ€. Since 2003, Jiangsu, Henan, and Qinghai have been listed as pilot cities for weight-based toll collection. In 2005, the Ministry of Communications issued the Guiding Opinions on the Toll-by-weight Measures for Toll Highways, and encouraged provinces and cities to implement a toll-by-weight policy so as to completely solve the problem of over-limitation of road transport.
Weight-based charging policies can block users from making money by overloading. According to the toll-by-weight policy, the more vehicles that are overloaded, the higher the traffic expenses. Taking a type 3 truck with a two-axle weight of 7 tons as an example, it took 8 tons of cargo and returned it empty, driving 100 kilometers per trip. According to the new toll-by-weight model, toll trucks need to pay a toll of about 135 yuan, and an empty vehicle will need to pay 65 yuan for transportation (rounded up), in response to paying a toll of about 200 yuan.
Look at the past toll collection methods: Vehicles under 15 tons are Type 3 vehicles, whether empty or loaded, and the toll rate is 1.3 yuan without overloading 15 tons. When you go, you need to pay a toll of 1.3×100=130 yuan, and when you return it, it is also 130 yuan. This way, you will receive a total of 260 yuan. Compared with the above new policy, there is a need to pay about 60 yuan more back and forth. It's a lot of money, whether it's for business or for customers, it's a big deal.
The implementation of the weight-based charging policy has caused the total volume of road freight to more than double, and the heavy-duty card market demand has doubled. Heavy truck companies are therefore also "outflows," and production and sales continue to rise. This is actually a simple arithmetic problem: Prior to the implementation of toll-by-weight, the original 60 tons of cargo required 1 heavy truck, but after implementation, it required 2 heavy trucks.
As of August this year, the number of provinces and municipalities that have implemented toll-by-weight on highways in our country has reached 19, and the mileage of weight-for-weight toll highways has accounted for 68% of the total length of highways in the country. It is expected to reach 88% by the end of the year. By 2010, over 90% of highways and provincial highways nationwide will implement weight-based charging policies.
After implementing weight-based charging, the 6×2 model became a transitional hot-selling heavy truck. Suspension bridges are also widely used in the products of various truck manufacturers. Road transport tractors are mainly sold models, such as 1+2+3 or 1 +1+3 tractors.
Industry data shows that the domestic tractor market has completely gone out of the “nightmare period†of 2005, and has become the “main vehicle†for the heavy truck sales in 2006 with the special vehicle class II chassis. The contribution rate of market sales has reached 30.15%; 2007 In the first 8 months, the total domestic sales of tractors was 121,673 units, and the market sales contribution rate reached 36.37%.
In 2006, the heavy-duty truck industry has a well-known user-selected model (the industry calls it the "Shaanxi Model"): fuel-efficient + high attendance + service convenience = earning heavy trucks. In the case that the freight rates cannot be changed for the time being, the only way for users to maximize their profits is to do so.