Analysis of Economic Operation Situation of Machinery Industry in the First Half of 2010

One year ago, due to the rapid proliferation of the international financial crisis, China’s machinery industry suffered a huge impact. After the country’s full implementation of the package plan to deal with the crisis and the implementation of adjustment and revitalization plans for the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry, the machinery industry has overcome unprecedented The difficulties have returned to the track of steady and rapid growth. In the first half of this year, the production, sales, and profit indicators of the machinery industry all recovered sharply compared with the same period of last year. Imports and exports of foreign trade picked up slightly, and the rebound to the good foundation was further stabilized. At the same time, however, there are still some uncertainties that warrant attention. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the machinery industry is expected to continue its steady growth on the basis of further improving its work in all aspects of structural and structural changes.

Rising to a better foundation

Rapid growth in production and sales, gradually stabilizing growth

In the first half of 2010, the machinery industry continued its upward trend since the fourth quarter of 2009. Both the production and sales growth exceeded 35% and the growth rate reached a new high in recent years. In the first half of the year, the machinery industry completed total industrial output value and sales value of 6.59 trillion yuan and 6.44 trillion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of 36.94% and 37.94% respectively, a sharp rise from the low of the same period of last year by 29.66 and 31.15 percentage points.

Affected by last year's base figure, the growth rate of production and sales this year showed a trend of stabilizing before and after becoming high. From the trend of year-on-year growth in output value, the monthly average of the machinery industry fell by about 2%.

In the first half of the year, the growth of production and sales in various sub-sectors was generally significant. The growth rate increased sharply compared with the same period of last year. All 13 sub-industries showed double-digit growth, of which 9 sub-industries had growth rates exceeding 30%, such as the output value of the automotive industry. The growth rate was 48.9%, 54.42% for the construction machinery industry, 41.44% for the machine tool industry, 37.14% for the mechanical basic parts industry, 37% for the internal combustion engine industry, and 32.77% for the civil-run industry.

The majority of product output has grown generally

In the first half of the year, of the 119 types of statistical products, there were 105 products with a cumulative year-on-year increase, accounting for 88.24% of all reported products. Among them, there are 92 kinds of products with double-digit growth rate, accounting for 77.31% of all reported products. The output of major products is showing a trend of general increase, especially in areas supported by national policies such as the automobile industry, and the output is growing faster.

In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles were 8,927,300 and 9,061,100, respectively, an increase of 48.84% and 47.67% respectively year-on-year. The power generation equipment was 57.65 million kilowatts, an increase of 7.83% over the same period of last year. The internal combustion engine was 623 million kilowatts, an increase of 61.93% over the same period last year. Excavation, shoveling machinery and compaction machinery in construction machinery also all increased significantly, with growth rates exceeding 60%. The growth rate of metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machines increased by more than 25% year-on-year, and the output of CNC systems increased by more than 1 time.

Significant increase in efficiency

From January to May, the machinery industry realized a total profit of 353.642 billion yuan, a record high in the same period, an increase of 163.837 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 86.13% year-on-year, a sharp rise of 93.86 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the increase in profits was much higher than the increase in sales during the same period. Among them, the automotive and construction machinery industry recorded the highest year-on-year growth rate of more than 110%; the machine tools, instrumentation, file management, basic parts, and internal combustion engine industries took the second place, accounting for about 80%; the electrician, heavy mining, and petrochemical general industries again accounted for about 40%. The agricultural machinery and food packaging machinery industry is relatively low, but it also reaches more than 25%.

Looking forward to the second half, you can be cautiously optimistic

The second half of the policy orientation is conducive to the development of the industry

First of all, the country has clearly implemented the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy. The macroeconomic situation in the second half of the year is expected to further develop. Against this backdrop, the demand for machinery products from all walks of life is expected to remain stable.

Secondly, this year is the second year of implementation of the adjustment and revitalization of the equipment manufacturing and automobile industries. With the continued implementation of various policies in the adjustment and revitalization plan, the environment for the development of the machinery industry is expected to continue to improve.

At the same time, the national strategic emerging industry development plan is being researched and formulated, which will be beneficial to the development of professional equipment and high-end technical equipment in the emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, new medicine, smart grid, and information technology. To nurture new economic growth points in the industry, it will also promote the machinery industry to speed up product structure adjustment and technology optimization and upgrading.

Many uncertainties in economic operations

First of all, although the domestic demand situation is generally better, some industries have declined. In the first half of the year, surveys of key contact companies showed that the overall demand and ordering status of the machinery industry was relatively good. In particular, the domestic demand for construction machinery, machine tools, automobiles, internal-combustion engines, and some general-purpose basic parts industries was strong, but new orders declined significantly after May; The ordering situation of equipment, power transmission equipment, heavy machinery and other industries has been not optimistic this year, and it is expected that it will be difficult for the second half of the year to recover significantly.

Second, the external demand situation remains extremely complicated. The world economy and trade began to pick up, but the foundation for the recovery of the world economy is still quite fragile and the recovery process is still quite difficult. The sovereign credit rating of some countries in the Eurozone has been lowered, and international trade protectionism has remarkably increased. These factors have brought a tremendous negative impact on China's machinery industry's external demand situation.

At the same time, the chance of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate increases. Some developed countries frequently exert pressure on the issue of the RMB exchange rate. The Central Bank issued an announcement in June 2010 that it will further promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism and enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. The appreciation of the renminbi will cause the relative increase in the export prices of China's machinery products, which will directly affect China's international competitiveness.

In addition, the cost of production factors such as labor costs has risen and business cost pressures have increased. According to the survey, since the beginning of this year, the labor costs of enterprises have risen significantly, and the cost of corporate financing has also risen. In addition, in the long run, the supply prices of raw materials such as coal, electricity, oil, transportation, and iron and steel are also difficult to maintain at low levels. All these factors have increased pressure on the cost of enterprises in the machinery industry, making production and operation more difficult.