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In recent years, affected by the aging of the population and the increase in wages, China's demographic dividend has gradually disappeared, and the trend of industrial automation has become more apparent. Under the trend of “substitute substitutionâ€, industrial robots have ushered in rapid development. Since 2013, China has become a global consumer of large industrial robots. The market scale continues to expand, the market growth rate continues to rise, and the number and density of industrial robots are increasingly breaking through.
Today, industrial robots have become the focus of China's intellectual transformation and industrial upgrading, and precision reducers are the key to the breakthrough of industrial robots in China. But unfortunately, the domestic reducer market is suffering from the violent impact of foreign companies, domestic reducer companies are also facing the dilemma of development, the industry's road ahead is very serious.
Therefore, how to achieve the rise of the domestic speed reducer? How to let China's reducer companies ushered in the development of qualitative changes? Has become the focus of everyone's attention.
Development status of China's reducer market
At present, China's industrial robot sales are huge, and it is expected to reach 127,000 units in 2018. Under such a scale, China's demand for industrial robot reducers is growing. From 2015 to 2017, the demand for new reducers in China will increase from 236,000 to 369,000 sets. It is expected that the demand will reach 1.05 million sets in 2025, and the demand scale will exceed 7.5 billion yuan.
Strong demand has spawned China's huge reducer market, but the market protagonist does not belong to Chinese enterprises.
As we all know, industrial robot reducers are mainly based on RV reducers and harmonic reducers, and the core technologies of these two precision reducers are firmly grasped by two Japanese companies, Nabtesco and Hamernaco. At present, these two companies not only occupy the dominant position in China's industrial robot reducer market, but also control the global market share of 75%.
In the case that the domestic market is monopolized by Japanese companies and the gearbox technology lacks an overall breakthrough, the demand of Chinese enterprises can only be met by foreign imports. It is understood that the price of a precision reducer from the purchase price to the purchase price of Chinese enterprises will be 2-3 times higher, which brings huge cost pressure to the development of Chinese enterprises.
Of course, on the contrary, the profit is also proportional to the difference. As long as the domestic reducer can break the monopoly, the middle price difference can be turned into its own profit space. In the past two years, the production capacity of foreign companies is generally in short supply, and the delivery cycle of imported reducers is being extended. The time from half a year to one year is becoming normal, which provides an excellent opportunity for the rise of China's reducers.
Three major problems need to be overcome
However, it is not easy to grasp the opportunity to achieve catch-up. At present, most companies engaged in the research and development of domestic reducers, except for a few government dividends, are mostly in a state of loss. Technology, capital, market and other factors are plaguing the development of enterprises. . As more and more enterprises enter the field of reducer manufacturing, improving the standard system and promoting fair competition has become an urgent problem to be solved.
For a long time, the domestic reducer has not been able to gain the trust of domestic enterprises due to the gap between technology and quality, so the domestic market is extremely unstable. In this respect, the domestic reducer will lose the opportunity of market inspection. On the one hand, the enterprises with mass production capacity will be cringed, and the final production capacity will not be fully displayed.
It is understood that many domestic enterprises have the conditions and capabilities for large-scale production, and the product performance has been able to meet the initial requirements. Only the service life is subject to time testing. However, the unstable market has made their exploration more cautious, and they only dare to produce according to actual orders, and mass production has not yet been realized.
In addition, high equipment and R&D costs are also important factors that restrict the development of most companies. The equipment for processing and manufacturing the reducer is tens of millions, and the investment in technology research and development is too far off, but the actual benefits brought by the end can not even be filled. The long-term loss operation has caused many enterprises to lose confidence and patience.
More importantly, the lack of industry standards has shifted the direction of business development. At present, the direction of domestic enterprise development is based on foreign products. It is considered how the domestic reducer can achieve performance closer to foreign products, rather than how it is more suitable for domestic robots. The final result is that the reducer manufacturers and It takes time and effort for robot manufacturers to conduct repeated negotiations, run-in and improvement.
It is gratifying to note that the government has given positive guidance and attention to these three issues. "Robot Industry Development Plan (2016-2020) Year" proposes "to improve the collaborative innovation of robots by accelerating the research of common key technologies, improving the robot innovation platform, strengthening the standard system construction, and building inspection and certification."
With the two-way assistance of the market and technology, the development of China's reducer has a bright future. In the future, as long as the government, enterprises and industry strengthen cooperation and cooperation, and break the three difficulties, the domestic reducer enterprises will finally ushered in the development of qualitative change, domestic slowdown. The development of the device will also achieve a headwind.
To solve these three problems, China's reducer enterprises will usher in qualitative changes.
In recent years, China's industrial robot industry has ushered in development, and industrial robot reducers related to this have also made progress. However, affected by factors such as technology, market and capital, the development of domestic enterprises faces severe challenges. In the future, only by overcoming the three major problems can we achieve qualitative change.