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Supply and Demand Analysis and Marketing Strategy of China's Ship Market
1 Operation of China's shipbuilding industry in 2015
In 2015, under the combined influence of multiple factors such as excess capacity in the shipping market, reduced volume of new ships, low new ship prices, increased difficulty in corporate profits, and overcapacity, China's shipbuilding industry is in the process of structural adjustment and transformation. Row.
From January to December last year, the national shipbuilding completion volume was 41.84 million DWT, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year; the new ship order volume was 31.26 million DWT, a year-on-year decrease of 47.9%. As of the end of December, the number of orders for hand-held ships was 123 million dwt, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%. Export ships accounted for 88.6%, 88.6%, and 95.7% of the nation's shipbuilding completions, new orders, and hand-held orders, respectively.
Although the overall operation of the shipbuilding industry remained stable and the shipbuilding completions increased year-on-year, the international new ship market was sluggish, and new orders for ships were down year-on-year. The stagflation of new ship prices, difficulties in delivery, and difficulties in financing have caused the economic benefits of enterprises to decline. The situation facing China's shipbuilding industry is still grim.
2 Analysis of production and sales situation and demand of ship plates in China
2.1 Ship plate price operation
Since 2015, the growth rate of steel demand in the downstream industry has declined overall, while the output of crude steel and steel has remained at a high level. The long-term imbalance between supply and demand, the market confidence is generally low, the long-term weakening is expected, and the upstream raw material costs have fallen sharply, which has led to the continued weakness of the steel market. The callback, steel prices fell and fell again, hitting new lows.
Although the ship plate price is relatively strong compared with ordinary steel products, but under the trend that the overall market is declining, it has not been able to stand alone, especially under the influence of the continued sluggish shipping market, the weak prosperity of the shipbuilding industry and the continued decline in the price of new ship orders. Ship plate prices also showed a unilateral decline. According to the monitoring, the average price of the shipboard market in Jinan, Tianjin and Shanghai at the end of last year fell by 1,220 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year, a drop of 37.74%.
2.2 Production situation of key enterprises' ship plates
According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, in 2015, China's major plate producers produced a total of 10.247 million tons of ship plates, accounting for 25.28% of plate production. Although the shipbuilding industry has continued to slump in recent years and shipbuilding steel has been shrinking, the current shipbuilding industry is still an important consumption channel for medium and heavy plates. Xianggang, Shagang, Nangang, Anshan Iron and Steel, Xinyu Iron and Steel, which ranks the top in shipboard production, The proportion of heavy steel ship plates in the production of heavy plates was 56.01%, 46.37%, 27.97%, 40.4%, 49.21% and 62.82% respectively. The top ten steel mills produced a total of 937.43 million tons of ship plates, accounting for 91.48% of the total ship plate production. The industrial concentration is very high.
2.3 Ship plate demand forecast
In 2016, due to the slowdown in global economic growth, the oversupply situation in the shipping market has not changed. New ship orders, especially bulk carrier orders, will continue to fall in the short term. It is estimated that the global new ship volume will be about 80 million DWT this year. .
Although the current orders of shipbuilding companies continue to decline, considering that a large number of hand-held orders are approaching the delivery period, the completion of shipbuilding in China is expected to remain stable in 2016. It is estimated that the annual completion of shipbuilding will be approximately 42 million DWT, and the demand for ship plates will be approximately About 11 million tons, basically the same as in 2015.
3 Shipboard marketing model innovation
In recent years, due to the continued sluggish shipbuilding industry, the production and operation of shipbuilding enterprises are extremely difficult. The Chinese boat enterprises are generally facing the pressure of survival. In order to reduce the procurement cost, the close cooperation between shipbuilding enterprises and steel enterprises is relatively weakened, and the price becomes the most important for the procurement of shipbuilding enterprises. factor. In order to better serve ship companies and cooperate closely, steel enterprises have continuously innovated their marketing models and formed four marketing models represented by “Group Alliance, Processing and Distribution, Customized Distribution, and Joint Developmentâ€.
3.1 Group Alliance Strategy
Steel companies and shipbuilding companies have established long-term and stable strategic partnerships to maximize the competitive advantage of the supply chain, share market profits, and avoid market risks. The Group's alliance strategy first emerged from the cooperation between Ansteel and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Group Dalian Shipyard. Baosteel further extended the group alliance strategy and jointly built large shipbuilding bases such as Hudong Zhonghua and Jiangnan Shipbuilding with CSSC. In 2011, Shougang and Xianggang began to replicate this model and signed strategic cooperation agreements with CSIC and CSSC. In 2012, Chongqing Iron & Steel and China Shipbuilding Industry Group signed a strategic agreement. In 2014, Shagang Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Shipping Industry Jiangsu Co., Ltd. In February 2016, Angang and China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry & Trade Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement.
3.2 Processing and Distribution Strategy
In 2004, CSIC and Angang Group jointly established the first domestic cross-industry professional processing and distribution company for shipbuilding steel, Angang Steel Co., Ltd. Dalian Shipbuilding and Distribution Co., Ltd. After more than ten years of development, although this model has been deepened, it still has a large gap with the international advanced level. At present, there are only a handful of professional shipboard processing and distribution centers in China. The representative ones are: Shanghai Baosteel Shipboard Processing and Distribution Center, Chongqing Iron and Steel Jingjiang Sanfeng Steel Processing and Distribution Center, Jiangsu Xianggang Property Steel Distribution Co., Ltd., Shagang Qianlong Steel Logistics Park, Weihai Jigang Qiyue Ship Material Co., Ltd., etc.
3.3 Customized Distribution Strategy
Customized distribution is based on the deepening and extension of processing and distribution. It is the “Internet-based thinking and just-in-time shipboard distribution service model†that Nangang has launched according to the requirements of modern shipbuilding mode. That is, when the shipyard needs what kind of ship plate, when is the production and distribution of Nangang, the shipyard will not order the steel plate whole, but according to the production requirements, the steel factory directly produces and cuts it, and then delivers it to the shipyard on time. Once the shipyard receives it, it can be put into use immediately. The shipboard segmental custom distribution can meet the material supply demand of modern shipbuilding enterprises, and realize the timely supply of steel plates according to the shipbuilding period, which is a service mode urgently needed by shipbuilding enterprises. Nangang Shipboard Customized Distribution has become the “National Quality Benchmark†in 2015.
3.4 Joint Development Strategy
Joint development means that steel enterprises actively develop new products through active docking and cooperation with shipyards, and enhance their independent competitiveness through the export of high-end raw materials through high-end equipment exports. Wuyang Iron and Steel and Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industry Group jointly developed rack steel for jack-up drilling platform lifting system. Nangang and Nantong Pacific Ocean Engineering Co., Ltd. jointly developed liquefied natural gas (LNG) marine nickel-based liquid tank steel, Anshan Iron and Steel and Sinotrans Changhang Group Co., Ltd. jointly developed corrosion resistant steel.
4 Marketing strategies and recommendations
4.1 Shipboard demand is still considerable, market share can not be easily abandoned
Affected by the downturn in the shipping market, the future development of the shipbuilding industry will still face greater pressure. Shipbuilding companies are facing a new round of reshuffle, and the phenomenon of “difficulty in receiving orders†and “difficult to earn profits†will be more prominent. However, according to the delivery plan and the status of hand-held orders, the demand for ship plates in China is still considerable in 2016. It is expected that the annual demand will remain at around 11 million tons, accounting for more than 15% of the total demand for plate.
Statistics show that in 2015, China's top ten steel plate producers accounted for 27.8% of the steel plate, while heavy steel, Xianggang, Baosteel, Xinyu Steel and other steel mills accounted for half of the plate production. It can be seen that in the case of the overall downturn in the downstream industry demand, the ship plate is still an indispensable product for the steel mills to ensure the smooth production.
4.2 Join hands with the main ship companies and seek strategic cooperation
In 2015, domestic shipbuilding enterprises faced a severe situation, and many shipbuilding enterprises closed down, such as Taizhou Dongfang Heavy Industry, Dalian STX, Wenzhou Zhuangji Shipbuilding, Zhenghe Shipbuilding, Mingde Heavy Industry, Jiangsu Haotian Ship, etc., and in 2016, Zhejiang Wuzhou Ship announced Bankruptcy is the first bankrupt state-owned shipyard in the past decade. Due to overcapacity, weak demand and national ship-breaking subsidies, it is difficult to benefit civilian shipbuilding companies and local country shipbuilding companies. This year, shipbuilding companies are likely to usher in a wave of closures.
In comparison, the living environment of large state-owned shipbuilding enterprises has slightly improved. Although profits continue to decline, the hand-held orders are still full, such as China Shipbuilding Corporation (China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry), China Shipping Group, and COSCO Shipyard. The production plans of the large shipbuilding companies under the business and Changhang Group are basically scheduled for 2017. In order to avoid risks and enhance the level of cooperation, strategic cooperation with state-owned large shipbuilding groups should be further strengthened.
4.3 Innovative cooperation mode to enhance competitive advantage
As the ship price continues to be sluggish, in order to reduce the procurement cost, some shipping companies adopt the method of bidding for a number of steel companies, which reduces the cost of steel procurement. Actually, the management mode is retrogressive. In order to cope with the crisis and jointly resist risks, steel enterprises and shipbuilding enterprises should establish a closer upstream and downstream cooperation mechanism, further consolidate their long-term strategic cooperative relations, establish scientific and reasonable supply relations, and improve the quality assurance system for marine steel products. Form a virtuous circle.
4.4 Optimize the variety structure and increase the proportion of production and sales of products with higher profitability
Shipboard products have problems of overcapacity and homogenization competition, and this situation is difficult to reverse in the short term. The downturn in the shipboard market will not be greatly improved. Only rely on the cost line to move down and increase the scale of production and sales. Adjusting the variety structure and benefiting from the variety structure can only highlight the encirclement in the fierce market competition and seize the market opportunity.
4.5 Improve production assurance and service capabilities
To maintain the steady development of the shipboard business in the overall downturn of the steel market, steel companies must quickly adapt to changes in shipboard market demand, accelerate the development of technology, improve product development efficiency, foster leading-edge unique strategic products, and strive to improve production assurance capabilities. And supporting service capabilities.